Stable sea level reality vs. accelerating sea level fantasies

Written by Albert Parker and Clifford Ollier

In a recent work [1] we showed the growing discrepancy in between the tide gauge results and the predictions by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and even greater predictions by the local Californian panels such as [2] and [3].

The sea levels have been mostly oscillating about a nearly perfectly linear trend since the start of the 20th century until the present. They have not followed the carbon dioxide emission over the past 120 years in any way, and it is consequently increasingly unrealistic that the worst-case scenario by the IPCC for 2,100 of 0.85 meters’ global sea level rise will come true, as this is based on a false assumption of the association of sea level with carbon dioxide.

The even more alarming predictions by the local Californian panels of up to 1.67 meters and finally up to 3.05 meters’ sea level rise in Californian are only a proof that there is no limit to the growing climate change misinformation. The difference between models and observations is growing rather than being reduced.

The sea level rises estimate by the two Californian panels are now more than one order of magnitude larger than what can be extrapolated from present sea level rise rates and accelerations based on tide gauge data sets such as California-8, Permanent Service on Mean Sea Level PSMSL-301, Mitrovica-23, Holgate-9, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA-199 and US-71 that are suggesting 100 – 200 mm of sea level rise by 2100 and not certainly 1,670 or 3,050 mm.

The evidence from the measurements does not support the IPCC expectations or the even more alarming predictions by the Californian panels. These claims and the subsequent analyses are too speculative to make them suitable for use in planning or policy making.

The only thing that is sharply accelerating in sea level science are the fantasies.

Fig. 1 – Comparison of sea level rises predicted by the local panels [2] (BOS-NRC) and [3] (H++), predicted by the IPCC AR5 RCP8.5 (IPCC RCP8.5), and measured by the tide gauges (averages of different data sets, California-8, PSMSL-301, Mitrovica-23, Holgate-9, NOAA-199, US-71). Further details in [1].

Fig. 2 – Comparison of sea level rises by 2100 predicted by the local panels [2] (BOS-NRC) and [3] (H++), predicted by the IPCC AR5 RCP8.5 (IPCC RCP8.5), and inferred from tide gauge measurements of different data sets (California-8, PSMSL-301, Mitrovica-23, Holgate-9, NOAA-199, US-71). Further details in [1].

References

[1]   Parker, A. & Ollier, C.D., CALIFORNIA SEA LEVEL RISE: EVIDENCE BASED FORECASTS VS. MODEL PREDICTIONS, Ocean and Coastal Management, doi: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2017.07.008

[2]   Board, Ocean Studies, and National Research Council “Sea-level rise for the coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: past, present, and future.” National Academies Press, 2012

[3]   Griggs, G, Árvai, J, Cayan, D, DeConto, R, Fox, J, Fricker, HA, Kopp, RE, Tebaldi, C & Whiteman, EA (California Ocean Protection Council Science Advisory Team Working Group). Rising Seas in California: An Update on Sea-Level Rise Science. California Ocean Science Trust, April 2017.