Sea Level Rise touted in New UN IPCC Report is Mega Scary!
Written by Albert Parker
For the upcoming Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) a rate of global mean sea level rise over 1980-2000 is touted faster than during any preceding 20-year period since at least 1000 BCE.
The IPCC witch-doctors are rewriting their sea level narrative, see below for their wording and our comments:
Sea level change over recent decades is unprecedented over the last several millennia (medium confidence) and the rate of global mean sea level rise has increased in recent decades (high confidence).
This is incorrect, as the now emerged lands are full of marine history, and many ancient ports are now several kilometers inland.
Ostia Antica was the harbor city of ancient Rome 2,000 years ago. It now lies 3 kilometers from the sea.
8,000 years ago, when the sea levels were about 4.5 m above present levels, the shoreline of the South China Sea almost reached Phnom Penh and the Tonle Sap Great Lake. They are now far from the sea.
Over the 20th century, tide gauge-based reconstructions show that global mean sea level has risen by 0.15-0.22 m between 1901 and 2015 (high confidence), and this increase was faster than that of any century since at least 1000 BCE (medium confidence).
This is also incorrect, as the tide gauges that have recorded since the start of the last century, show a completely different story from what is told in subjective reconstructions based on cherry picking.
If mathematics is not an opinion, a 0.15-0.22 m sea level rise 1901 to 2015 translates in a 1.32 to 1.93 mm/yr. of rate of sea level rise. Statistics of long-term-trend (LTT) tide gauges tell us that the naïve average relative rate of rising – a much better measure than a cherry picking also variable in time – is much less than that, at about 0.33 mm/yr.
Coupling the relative sea level rise information with GNSS monitoring of domes nearby the tide gauges, the so-called thermosteric component, or absolute rate of sea level rise, is also about 0.33 mm/yr. This is compatible with a gentle recovery of temperatures from the end of the last little ICE age.
The rate of global mean sea level rise over 1980-2000 was faster than during any preceding 20-year period since at least 1000 BCE (low confidence). Global mean sea level very likely rose on average by 1.2 [0.9-1.7] mm yr-1 over 1901-1990 and 1.7 [1.3-1.9] mm yr-1 over 1901-2015 and 3.1±0.3 mm yr-1 over 1993-2017 (high confidence).
This other wrong statement is an overselling of their alleged satellite global mean sea level (GMSL) measurement, and the mixing up of apples with cherries, comparing subjective interpretations of tide gauge results, with the engineered product GMSL created to show what is not.
No matter what the IPCC witch-doctors say, there is no such a thing like an instantaneous measure of the volume of the ocean waters with nanometric precision.
The truth is that a noisy, almost detrended, satellite altimeter signal has been manipulated in successive rounds of administrative corrections, to represent whatever was needed, with many pathetic excuses. This engineered product should not replace the good tide gauges observations. To be reliable, the GMSL product should match the reading of tide gauges corrected for land subsidence.
In the LTT tide gauges, Figure 1 and 2 two examples, the sea levels have oscillated about the same trend line before 1980, in between 1980 and 1990, or since 1990. No difference of behavior.
Sea level and energy budgets can be consistently closed within uncertainties for the period 1971-2018 (high confidence).
While there are no doubts that products engineered by same “pals”, for sea levels and energy budget, may fit the same narrative, the result at the long-term-trend tide gauge is confirmed by other experimental results. The direct observations of the mean sea levels at the LTT tide gauges, that are spanning more than 100 years in the different ocean basins and seas in the world, suggest negligible acceleration, and rising and falling seas for a much weaker average rate of rising.
While there are no reliable measurements of the mass of ice on land, the more direct measurements of lower troposphere temperatures and ocean temperatures 0-1900m suggest that the average rate of rising is much less than what is claimed by the IPCC witch-doctors, only based on a circular logic of carefully engineered computational products supporting other carefully engineered computational products, never taking into account what is going on in the real world.
The lack of any significant sea level acceleration and the small average relative rate of rise have been evidenced in many works, such as Beenstock, Reingewertz and Paldor (2012); Beenstock, Felsenstein, Frank, and Reingewertz, (2015); Boretti, (2012a,b); Boretti and Watson (2012); Dean and Houston (2013); Douglas (1992); Douglas and Peltier (2002); Holgate (2007); Houston and Dean (2011); Japan Meteorological Agency (2018); Jevrejeva, Grinsted, Moore and Holgate (2006); Jevrejeva, Moore, Grinsted, and Woodworth (2008); Mörner, (2004); Mörner (2007); Mörner (2010a,b,c); Mörner, (2011a,b); Mörner (2013); Mörner (2016); Okunaka and Hirahara (2016); Parker (2013a,b,c,d,e); Parker, (2014a,b); Parker and Ollier (2015); Parker (2016a,b,c,d,e); Parker and Ollier (2017a,b); Parker (2018a,b,c); Parker and Ollier (2018); Parker, Mörner, and Matlack-Klein (2018); Parker (2019); Scafetta (2014); Schmith, Johansen, and Thejll (2012); Wenzel and Schröter (2010); and finally Wunsch, Ponte and Heimbach (2007), just to name a few. These works should not be ignored.
The satellite altimeter absolute global mean sea level is not a product that should be thrusted. Same of the predictions in general by the IPCC witch-doctors. Real-world observations at the tide gauges are by far superior to any other product. If these measurements do not support a narrative, hence the narrative is false.
Figure 1 – Sea level rise in the Battery, New York, United States (from sealevel.info) and likely subsidence of the tide gauge (from geodesy.unr.edu). With date range, January 1856 to December 2017, the relative sea levels have been rising at a rate of v =+2.848 mm/yr. subjected to an acceleration of a =+0.00851 mm/yr².
The GNSS antenna of NYBP very close to the tide gauge (49 meters) shows a recent subsidence rate of w =-2.150 mm/yr. The absolute sea level rate of rising in The Battery, New York is therefore u=+0.698 mm/yr. The east coast of the United States, and the area of New York in particular, is well-known to be affected by groundwater withdrawal induced land subsidence.
Figure 2 – Sea level rise in Sydney, Fort Denison, Australia (from sealevel.info) and likely subsidence of the tide gauge (from geodesy.unr.edu and sideshow.jpl.nasa.gov). With Date range, December 1886 to December 2016/12 the relative sea levels have been rising at a rate of v =+0.739 mm/yr. subjected to an acceleration of a =+0.01747 mm/yr².
The not that close GNSS antenna of SYDN, 10,775 meters from the tide gauge shows, according to geodesy.unr.edu, a recent subsidence rate of w =- -0. 392 mm/yr. The absolute sea level rate of rising in Sydney, Fort Denison is therefore u=+0.347 mm/yr. Eastern Australia, and the area of Sydney in particular, is known to be geologically stable. According to sideshow.jpl.nasa.gov, the subsidence of Sydney is much larger, making the absolute rate of rise negative.
If a well established constellation of satellites fails to provide accurate assessments of the absolute vertical velocity of individual fixed domes on earth, the accuracy of the satellite altimeter computation, involving the indirect measurement of the instantaneous volume of all the ocean waters, that are continuously fluctuating, plus many modelling corrections, not last a computation of the global glacial isostatic adjustment, is certainly larger than the trend.
- Beenstock, M., Reingewertz, Y. and Paldor, N., 2012. Polynomial cointegration tests of anthropogenic impact on global warming. Earth System Dynamics 3(2), 173-188.
- Beenstock, M., Felsenstein, D., Frank, E. and Reingewertz, Y., 2015. Tide gauge location and the measurement of global sea level rise. Environmental and ecological statistics 22(1), 179-206.
- Boretti, A., 2012a. Short Term Comparison of Climate Model Predictions and Satellite Altimeter Measurements of Sea Levels. Coastal Engineering 60, 319-322.
- Boretti, A., 2012b. Is there any support in the long term tide gauge data to the claims that parts of Sydney will be swamped by rising sea levels? Coastal Engineering 64, 161-167.
- Boretti, A. and Watson, T., 2012. The inconvenient truth: Ocean Levels are not accelerating in Australia. Energy and Environment 23(5), 801-817.
- Dean, R.G. and Houston, J.R., 2013. Recent sea level trends and accelerations: comparison of tide gauge and satellite results. Coastal Engineering 75, 4-9.
- Douglas, B., 1992. Global Sea Level Acceleration. Geophysical Research 97(8), 699-706.
- Douglas, B. and Peltier, W. R, 2002. The Puzzle of Global Sea-Level Rise. Physics Today 55(3), 35-40.
- Holgate, S. J., 2007. On the decadal rates of sea level change during the twentieth century. Geophysical Research Letters 34, L01602.
- Houston, J. R., and Dean, R. G., 2011. Sea-Level Acceleration Based on U.S. Tide Gauges and Extensions of Previous Global-Gauge Analyses. Journal of Coastal Research 27, 409-417.
- Japan Meteorological Agency, 2018. Sea level (around Japan). Update 29 Mar. 2018. data.jma.go.jp/gmd/kaiyou/english/sl_trend/sea_level_around_japan.html.
- Jevrejeva, S., Grinsted, A., Moore, J.C. and Holgate, S., 2006. Nonlinear trends and multiyear cycles in sea level records. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 111(C9).
- Jevrejeva, S., Moore, J. C., Grinsted, A., and Woodworth, P., 2008. Recent global sea level acceleration started over 200 years ago?, Res. Lett. 35, L08715.
- Mörner, N.-A., 2004. Estimating future sea level changes. Global Planetary Change 40, 49–54.
- Mörner, N.-A., 2007. Sea Level Changes and Tsunamis. Environmental Stress and Migration over the Seas. Internationales Asienforum 38, 353–374.
- Mörner, N.-A., 2010a. Sea level changes in Bangladesh new observational facts. Energy and Environment 21(3), 235-249.
- Mörner, N.-A., 2010b. Some problems in the reconstruction of mean sea level and its changes with time. Quaternary International 221(1-2), 3-8.
- Mörner, N.-A., 2010c. There Is No Alarming Sea Level Rise! 21st Century Science and Technology Fall 2010, 7-17.
- Mörner, N.-A., 2011a. Setting the frames of expected future sea level changes by exploring past geological sea level records. Chapter 6 of book, D Easterbrook, Evidence-Based Climate Science, 2011 Elsevier B.V. ISBN: 978-0-12-385956-3.
- Mörner, N.-A., 2011b. The Maldives: A measure of sea level changes and sea level ethics. Chapter 7 of book, D Easterbrook, Evidence-Based Climate Science, 2011 Elsevier B.V. ISBN: 978-0-12-385956-3.
- Mörner, N.A., 2013. Sea level changes past records and future expectations. Energy and Environment 24(3-4), 509-536.
- Mörner, N.-A., 2016. Rates of Sea Level Changes — A Clarifying Note, by Nils-Axel Mörner, International Journal of Geosciences 7(11), 1318-1322.
- Okunaka, Y. and Hirahara, T., 2016. Long-term trend of sea level on coast of Japan – Recent research review and correction using ground variation by GPS observation, Sokkou-jiho 83, S21-S．jma.go.jp/jma/kishou/books/sokkou-kaiyou/83/vol83s021.pdf
- Parker, A., 2013a. Comment on Low-frequency sea level variation and its correlation with climate events in the Pacific, Chinese Science Bulletin 58(14), 1708-1713.
- Parker, A., 2013b. NATURAL OSCILLATIONS AND TRENDS IN LONG-TERM TIDE GAUGE RECORDS FROM THE PACIFIC, Pattern Recogn. Phys. 1, 1-13.
- Parker, A., 2013c. Sea level trends at locations of the United States with more than 100 years of recording, Natural Hazards 65(1), 1011-1021.
- Parker, A., 2013d. Oscillations of sea level rise along the Atlantic coast of North America north of Cape Hatteras, Natural Hazards 65(1), 991-997.
- Parker, A., 2013e. Lower Bounds to Future Sea-Level Rise, International Journal of Ocean and Climate Systems 4(3), 197-211.
- Parker, A., 2014a. Apparent hot and cold spots of acceleration along the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of the United States, Nonlinear Engineering 3(1), 51-56.
- Parker, A., 2014b. Impacts of sea level rise on coastal planning in Norway, Ocean Engineering 78, 124-130.
- Parker, A. and Ollier, C. D., 2015. Coastal planning should be based on proven sea level data, Ocean and Coastal Management 124, 1-9.
- Parker, A., 2016a. Rates of subsidence and relative sea level rise in the Hawaii Islands, Nonlinear Engineering 5(4), 255-268.
- Parker, A., 2016b. Coldspot of Decelerated Sea-Level Rise on the Pacific Coast of North America, Quaestiones Geographicae 35(3), 31-37.
- Parker, A., 2016c. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is stable under global warming, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 113(20), E2760-E2761.
- Parker, A., 2016d. Analysis of the sea levels in Kiribati a rising sea of misrepresentation sinks Kiribati, Nonlinear Engineering 5(1), 37-43.
- Parker, A., 2016e. The actual measurements at the tide gauges do not support strongly accelerating twentieth-century sea-level rise reconstructions, Nonlinear Engineering 5(1), 45-71.
- Parker, A. and Ollier, C.D., 2017a. California sea level rise: evidence based forecasts vs model predictions. Ocean and Coastal Management 149, 198-209.
- Parker, A. and Ollier, C.D., 2017b. SHORT TERM TIDE GAUGE RECORDS FROM ONE LOCATION ARE INADEQUATE TO INFER GLOBAL SEA LEVEL ACCELERATIONS, Earth Syst. Environ 1, 17.
- Parker, A., 2018a. Geodetic Observation crucial to Sea-Level Monitoring, Arabian Journal of Geosciences 11, 239. doi.org/10.1007/s12517-018-3601-8
- Parker, A., 2018b. Sea level oscillations in Japan and China since the start of the 20thcentury and consequences for coastal management – Part 2: China pearl river delta region, Ocean and Coastal Management 163, 456-465.
- Parker, A., 2018c. Relative sea level rise along the coast of China mid-twentieth to end twenty-first centuries, Arabian Journal of Geosciences 11, 262. doi.org/10.1007/s12517-018-3620-5
- Parker, A. and Ollier, C., 2018. The sea level of Guam, New Concepts in Global Tectonics Journal, 6(2) 235-242.
- Parker, A., Mörner, N.-A. and Matlack-Klein, P., 2018. SEA LEVEL ACCELERATION CAUSED BY EARTHQUAKE INDUCED SUBSIDENCE IN THE SAMOA ISLANDS, Ocean and Coastal Management, 161 11-19.
- Parker, A., 2019. Sea level oscillations in Japan and China since the start of the 20th century and consequences for coastal management-Part 1: Japan. Ocean & Coastal Management, 169, pp.225-238.
- Scafetta, N., 2014. Multi-scale dynamical analysis (MSDA) of sea level records versus PDO, AMO, and NAO indexes. Climate Dynamics 43, 175-192.
- Schmith, T., Johansen, S. and Thejll, P., 2012. Statistical analysis of global surface temperature and sea level using cointegration methods. Journal of Climate 25(22), 7822-7833.
- Wenzel, M. and Schröter, J., 2010. Reconstruction of regional mean sea level anomalies from tide gauges using neural networks. Journal of Geophysical Research – Oceans 115, C08013.
- Wunsch, R., Ponte, R. and Heimbach, P., 2007. Decadal trends in sea level patterns: 1993-2004. Journal of Climatology 20(24), 5889-5911.
PRINCIPIA SCIENTIFIC INTERNATIONAL, legally registered in the UK as a company incorporated for charitable purposes. Head Office: 27 Old Gloucester Street, London WC1N 3AX.