Scientists Watch as Magnetic North Pole Pushes Toward Russia

Pole Patrol - MagLab

image source: nationalmaglab.org

Earlier this year, US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the British Geological Survey (BGS) were forced to update the World Magnetic Model a year ahead of schedule due to the speed with which the magnetic north pole is shifting out of the Canadian Arctic and toward Russia’s Siberia.

The BGS and the US National Centers for Environmental Information has released a new update to the World Magnetic Model this week, confirming that the magnetic north pole, whose coordinates are crucial for the navigation systems used by governments, militaries and a slew of civilian applications, is continuing its push toward Siberia.

“The WMM2020 forecasts that the northern magnetic pole will continue drifting toward Russia, although at a slowly decreasing speed –down to about 40 km per year compared to the average speed of 55 km over the past twenty years,” the US agency said in a press statement.

The data confirmed that this year, the magnetic north pole passed to within 390 km of the geographic North Pole, and crossed the Greenwich (prime) meridian. Compilers also confirmed that the Earth’s magnetic field is continuing to weaken, at a rate of about 5 percent every 100 years.

Global map of declination and the dip pole locations for 2020
© PHOTO : NOAA NCEI/CIRES
Global map of declination and the dip pole locations for 2020

The World Magnetic Model is used by everything from smartphone compass apps, maps and GPS services to telecommunications transmission systems, and navigation tools for various agencies, including the Federal Aviation Administration, NASA, the US Defence Department and NATO.

Scientists Still Don’t Know Exactly What’s Driving Pole’s Accelerated Drift

Magnetic north, the point on the planet’s surface toward which your conventional compass points, is created by the churning of molten metal in Earth’s core, which creates huge electrical currents to produce the magnetic field.

Commenting on the freshly-released magnetic north pole data, Dr. Ciaran Beggan, a geophysicist and geomagnetic specialist from the British Geological Survey’s Edinburgh office, told FT that although the movement of the pole has been “much faster” since the 1990s “than at any time for at least four centuries,” scientists “really don’t know much about the changes in the core that’s driving it.”

With the pole passing the Greenwich meridian and continuing its race east, humanity is entering the unknown, scientifically speaking, since, from the time records of the magnetic north pole’s position have been kept starting in the 16th century, the pole had drifted around the Canadian Arctic.

Tardis located: North Pole
Tardis located: North Pole

Dr. Phil Livermore of Leeds University’s Institute of Geophysics recently postulated that a ‘jet stream’ of liquid iron flowing in the planet’s core could help explain shifts in the position of magnetic north, but suggested tracking the flows of this liquid iron could be difficult, “because it lies beneath 3,000 kilometres of rock.”

Scientists have previously expressed concerns about the fluctuations in the magnetic north pole and its possible impact on the magnetic field protecting Earth. Without the field, Earth would be left vulnerable to solar flares, which could cause damage to everything from spacecraft to power grids. Even with the magnetic field intact, the planet remains vulnerable. In 2011, the US National Academy of Sciences calculated that a repeat of a solar storm like the one which hit the planet in 1859 could cause as much as $2 trillion in initial damage, and take a decade to repair.

Furthermore, a weakened magnetic field may lead to a potentially cataclysmic process scientists call a “geomagnetic reversal,” in which the Earth’s north and south poles effectively switch places. The last such flip is estimated to have taken place about 800,000 years ago, and some scientists believe that another may be due soon, even though such an event could take centuries to complete.

Read more at sputniknews.com


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Comments (15)

  • Avatar

    jerry krause

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    Hi sputniknews,

    Someone in your news organization just wrote: “confirming that the magnetic north pole, whose coordinates are crucial for the navigation systems used by governments, militaries and a slew of civilian applications, is continuing its push toward Siberia.”

    I am reasonably certain that for several or more years, most personnel of governments, militaries, and a slew of civiiians have not used a magnet compass to determine their specific locations on the earth’s surfaces. Instead they use the more modern instruments of the modern GPS system to determine their ‘fairly precise and accurate’ geographical position on the earth’s surface.

    Have a good day, Jerry

    Reply

    • Avatar

      jerry krause

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      Hi sputniknews,

      If you wanted to explore the Arctic to locate the geographical North Pole, what simple instrument could you make and take with you to determine with good precision if you were at the geographical North Pole on the day of the Summer Solstice?

      Have a good day, Jerry

      Reply

      • Avatar

        Not sputnicknews

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        Hi Jerry.
        I have never used a sextant. but geographical North Pole at summer solstice would be a doozie.
        Have a great day WhoKoo and friend..

        Reply

        • Avatar

          jerry krause

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          Hi sputniknews,

          The problem with your sarcasms is they mock the scientists of the PSI readers who are really trying to understand (learn about) scientific ideas. Science was not a game to Copernicus who I believe wrote (as translated by someone): “Therefore, when I considered this carefully, the contempt which I had to fear because of the novelty and apparent absurdity of my view, nearly induced me to abandon utterly the work I had begun.”

          And the fact (which I believe to be true) that Galileo (born 21 years after Copernicus had died) had to lie ‘that he believed that the earth stood still to save his life’ clearly documented Copernicus’s fear. And this historical event documents that Galileo’s ideas were not a game to him either.

          The problem with your sarcastic remarks is that I actually believe what people post (either articles or comments). And I believe there are PSI readers, who come to PSI to read about science and to learn about science, who actually believe your sarcastic remarks. I only wrote my initial comment about what you had written to warn such a reader that what they had read should be questions and not accepted as a factoid (a word I only recently learned about).

          And as I read other comments about government regulations about magnetic compasses, seems to reinforces your sarcasm even though your article seems to contradict such use of the past.

          And I can imagine that some readers, who come to PSI to learn about science, are not aware of the need to apply a known magnetic correction to a compass.

          Hence, I conclude that your sarcasm creates confusion so one (myself) cannot not know what to believe. Which is not good.

          Have a good day, Jerry

          Reply

          • Avatar

            Matt

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            Hi Jerry Krause.

            My above comment (not sputnicknews) was that I thought the answer to your question on how to find geographical North Pole at summer solstice would be to use a sextant.
            I may have been mistaken and definitely did not include or intend sarcasm.
            One of the weaknesses of email is it is one of the propagators of silo culture. That is, when the left hand does not know what the right hand is doing, or people talking past each other, and miscommunication, where as, with actual verbal communication one can hear the timbre of another’s voice, take a concept and expand on it, or ask an instant question to seek clarity before misunderstanding sets in. I will monitor my clumsy communication and inhibit intended light humour which appears to be inappropriate.
            I presume “sextant” was the incorrect answer to your question, although I believe, Geographic North Pole could be found during Northern Southern Solstice by using a sextant.
            Enjoy your Sunday. Matt Holl

          • Avatar

            Matt

            |

            Hi Jerry Krause.

            My above comment (not sputnicknews) was that I thought the answer to your question on how to find geographical North Pole at summer solstice would be to use a sextant.
            I may have been mistaken and definitely did not include or intend sarcasm.
            One of the weaknesses of email is it is one of the propagators of silo culture. That is, when the left hand does not know what the right hand is doing, or people talking past each other, and miscommunication, where as, with actual verbal communication one can hear the timbre of another’s voice, take a concept and expand on it, or ask an instant question to seek clarity before misunderstanding sets in. I will monitor my clumsy communication and inhibit intended light humour which appears to be inappropriate.
            I presume “sextant” was the incorrect answer to your question, although I believe, Geographic North Pole could be found during Northern Southern Solstice by using a sextant.
            Enjoy your Sunday. Matt Holl

          • Avatar

            matt

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            Delete the word Southern from my above comment. Another error.

          • Avatar

            jerry krause

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            Hi Matt,

            Thank you for your comment. You are one of the few who seems willing to have an ongoing conversation.

            I expect a sextant could be used but I believe (but don’t know for sure) that it use might require the accurate time to be known.

            And because of my lack of experience, my definition of good precision is within a degree (or maybe even two). And my example of simple is not a sextant.

            Now, I debate, with myself, if I should consider what I have just written as being clues and suggest you try again. Or, give you my answer and let you question it.

            My simple instrument would begin with a square foot, 3/4 inch thick, flat board. Draw two right lines with a straight edge from opposite corners to mark the boards center. Fasten two levels on adjacent sides of the top surface with which to level the surface. Draw a circle with a compass about the center of the board as large as the levels allow.

            On a large piece of paper draw a right line with the straight edge at least 18 inches long This so I can say ‘eyeball’ the center of the line and take the compass and draw the same size circle on the paper as you drew on the board.

            Now expand the compass so you mark out the the arcs whose intersections mark the position of the straight edge and draw the right line of the perpendicular bisector. Does it pass directly through the center of the circle you have drawn? Likely not, no matter how precisely you have tried to do these mechanical operations. Which was the topic about which Newton had written before his sentence which ended with the four words: “the art of measuring.”

            Now it is very difficult to construct a 23 degree angle by drawing circles and right lines so take a protractor and mark out a 23 degree right line from the intersection of the circle with the original line with its marked center. Now with the straight edge draw the right line from the intersection of line and circle through the mark of 23 degrees and through the line of the perpendicular bisector. Now you had define the height of a gnomon which should cast its longest shadow of the day to the circle when the board is positioned level. But gnomon has not yet been made. A perpendicular hole, the diameter of the gnomon needs to drilled though the center of the board and the length of the gnomon be made the length of the right line measure from the geometric figure you have drawn plus 3/4 inch, the depth of the board’s hole which will hold the gnomon perpendicularly upright.

            Now, if one actually does this, I am sure one will understand ‘the art of measurement’ and the limitations (imprecision) of actually measuring something with something which is quite simple when completed.

            Can you imagine the problems (care) involved in making a sextant (which to me does not appear to be near as simple to manufacture)?

            Have a good day, Jerry

    • Avatar

      William Morgan

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      As a sailor, I’ve believed in holding paper charts, as well as using a GPS Chart Plotter. It has been obvious that over the past decade, the usual magnetic declination on paper charts and its projected movement have been totally up the spout. Searching on the web has been pretty useless as well. No one seems to know what’s happening.

      Reply

    • Avatar

      JaKo

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      Every flying vehicle (and I suppose all open water boats and ships) have to have a functional MECHANICAL COMPASS, by law.
      And, contrary to popular beliefs, even smartphones use magnetic compass (magnetometer).

      Reply

    • Avatar

      Veronica Forrest

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      Jerry, The statement you quoted was referring to the navigation ‘systems’ used …. not a compass. The World Magnetic Model is crucial in making adjustments to these ‘systems’ to keep everyone on the right track.

      Reply

  • Avatar

    Andy Rowlands

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    I had thought that the magnetic poles always wander around, so I don’t see anything particularly dangerous in the present situation, though I’m sure others will disagree. If the poles do swap, as I believe they have at various times in the past, it’s likely to take decades or longer, and I’m sure human ingenuity will find ways round it. I would have thought we could use GPS to navigate anyway?

    Reply

    • Avatar

      JDHuffman

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      Andy, pole reversal at the sun takes less than a year, depending on how you define “start” and “stop”. Of course, Earth is not Sun, so it would be hard to extrapolate data. The sun flips polarity with the sunspot cycles. So obviously it flips a lot more than Earth.

      You’re correct about Earth’s wandering magnetic field. That’s why airports have to sometimes re-label the runways. For example, Runway 18 indicates the plane would be landing on a compass heading of about 180 degrees. But if the exact heading changed to 174 degrees, the runway would be re-labeled to Runway 17.

      Much of what we “know” about Earth/Sun magnetic fields is more belief than science. For example, we’re not really sure how Earth’s magnetic field is maintained. Being able to witness Earth’s polarity reversal might be very educational, in ways we don’t want to know….

      Reply

      • Avatar

        Andy Rowlands

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        I’d often wondered why airport runways have such seemingly odd numbers, but I’d never bothered to try and find out. Now I know where the numbers come from, so thanks JD!

        Reply

      • Avatar

        jerry krause

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        Hi JD,

        You concluded: “Being able to witness Earth’s polarity reversal might be very educational, in ways we don’t want to know.”

        Amazing this thing termed fear. I have heard people from areas where tornadoes are common state they were glad to go home and to leave Yellowstone before there was an eruption or earthquake.

        Have a good day, Jerry

        Reply

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