Prof Who Predicted 500K UK Deaths Now Says Under 20K Will Die

Written by Tyler Durden

 

Imperial College London’s Neil Ferguson – who originally estimated 500,000 deaths in the UK due to Coronavirus, now says that the virus will peak in just two or three weeks, and that UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, according to NewScientist.

The need for intensive care beds will get very close to capacity in some areas, but won’t be breached at a national level, said Ferguson. The projections are based on computer simulations of the virus spreading, which take into account the properties of the virus, the reduced transmission between people asked to stay at home and the capacity of hospitals, particularly intensive care units. –NewScientist

Why the change of heart from Ferguson – who himself has contracted COVID-19?

Ferguson – whose ‘Terrifying’ research from just 10 days ago predicted 2.2 million deaths in the US and that the UK would need to be under quarantine for 18 months or more – now says that coronavirus will not overwhelm the UK’s ICU beds, and that over 1/2 of those it will kill would have died by the end of the year anyway because they were so old and sick.

His reasoning is that estimates of the virus’s transmissibility are much higher than previously thought – and that many more people have gotten it than we realize, making it less dangerous overall.

New data from the rest of Europe suggests that the outbreak is running faster than expected, said Ferguson. As a result, epidemiologists have revised their estimate of the reproduction number (R0) of the virus. This measure of how many other people a carrier usually infects is now believed to be just over three, he said, up from 2.5. “That adds more evidence to support the more intensive social distancing measures,” he said. –NewScientist

Alex Berenson

@AlexBerenson

3/ Essentially, what has happened is that estimates of the viruses transmissibility have increased – which implies that many more people have already gotten it than we realize – which in turn implies it is less dangerous.

1,110 people are talking about this

That said, his original model predicted this if recommended measures were implemented:

Will Chamberlain@willchamberlain

Ferguson’s model accounts for this, assuming that the measures he recommends would be put in place “in late March”

Johnson implemented the shutdown on the 23rd

View image on Twitter
See Will Chamberlain’s other Tweets

Meanwhile, a report from Oxford University suggests that the UK may have already achieved herd immunity because more than 50% of the population has likely had the virus and recovered.

This has caused the British government to downgrade Coronavirus from being an acute, deadly, infectious disease, as noted by Armstrong Economics

That said, there are some issues, according to Rabobank’s Michael Every.

This theory is based on the assumption that the virus’s infection rate (R0) is 2.25, and that as it has been spreading like wildfire since January, mathematically much of the UK is likely already infected – and as they aren’t dead, must now be OK.

Which is fine until once notices the number of virus tests done in the UK: as of 9am on 24 March, a total of 90,436 people had been tested, of which 82,359 were confirmed negative and 8,077 were confirmed positive. In other words, 9 out of 10 patients tested are coming back negative.

If COVID-19 has spread like wildfire, and hence we are close to the much-coveted “herd immunity”, why are there so few positives for virus antibodies in this sample group? Surely it should be closer to 50-50? -Rabobank

Every points out that in Wuhan, China, 3-10% of those who have recovered from the virus still test positive afterwards.

Some have found Ferguson’s change of heart to be a bit unbelievable for a guy who was deathly afraid just weeks ago, and whose July 16th paper reportedly catalyzed  the Trump administration into its current course of action.

Read more at www.zerohedge.com


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Comments (21)

  • Avatar

    Charles Higley

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    An important point to not overlook is that a positive test for Covid-19 does NOT mean a person died from it. As the vast majority of the deaths are those with already existing serious conditions, we need to realize that, generally, this is a mild virus. From the salad of flu viruses that make up the flu season, it is very likely that many people have picked up more than one virus. If they test positive for Covid-19 and die, we attribute it to the virus, but if negative and die, it’s just a flu death. As Covid-19 is easily caught, this does not mean that it is the virus of the death.

    A total death of 20,000 in the UK in a population, who mostly will catch this virus, is beginning to sound a lot like a normal flu season to which they are willing to blame a virus that has not been shown to be virulent, only shown to be good at getting around. Humans are catching coronaviruses all the time and never know it, as evidenced by all the positive tests in people with no symptoms.

    • Avatar

      JT

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      20,000 deaths in the UK is a normal flu season? Where did that figure come from?

      • Avatar

        Andy Rowlands

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        That is the World Health Organisation’s figure, which was confirmed to me by my GP a couple weeks ago. Worldwide, flu kills between 290,000 and 650,000 every year.

        • Avatar

          JT

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          In the UK flu incidents and deaths are monitored by the USISS (UK Severe Influenza Surveillance System) which has a mandatory element that ensures all influenza like illnesses are monitored and recorded. The main role is to pick up on possible flu epidemics before they become entrenched. Their data is publicly available here and tracks flu related ICU/HDU admissions and deaths.

          https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/annual-flu-reports

          Their numbers for UK deaths for the past two flu seasons are:-
          2017-18 372 deaths in the UK (page 21)
          2018-19 312 deaths in the UK (page 24)

          The number of reported flu related deaths are almost always hugely over inflated as they are always confused with the total number of winter related excess deaths (hypothermia etc).

          This means that covid-19 is responsible for more UK deaths in the past few weeks than the last two flu seasons combined.

          They have a weekly report and a yearly summary.

          • Avatar

            richard

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            On the worldometer we have a daily tally of 1,200 or so dying of Flu. After Corona has moved on the flu tally will still continue.

            3 countries have been responsible for the majority of deaths from Corona with the rest made up from another 112 countries. In a further 80 countries with Corona no one has died to date.

  • Avatar

    Michel Starenky

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    Comparison to 1918-1920 pandemic
    3% of the world population died – roughly 2,000,000 died each month for 24 months
    Coronavirus
    We are just at 8000 per month deaths .If extended to 24 months at this rate let us say 10,000 per month that would kill only 240,000 people. Is this a pandemic? No. I would worry if 3% of the population died – 225,000,000. 10,000,000 month.
    I am tired of this flight into stupidity and then madness.

    • Avatar

      JT

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      And what about bubonic plague eh? That was a proper pandemic that was. Not like this namby pamby modern so called epidemic that is probably only going to kill a quarter of a million people. Quarter of a million? Pah!

      They have a weekly report and a yearly summary.

  • Avatar

    tom0mason

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    In the UK there is generally too much panicky misreporting and very little reliable testing happening.
    The are just 2 things to note —
    1. Most, if not all people will be infected with the virus.
    2. The vast majority of healthy people will easily survive the infection.

    Also of note is that currently the virus epidemic is still going through it’s first stages of infections, and as at this time nobody truly and accurately knows the total number of people who have been infected in the UK! It appears that many people can be infected and not know it. Unless there is widespread testing these numbers, especially in the UK, will never be known.
    From what I understand the figures that are shown on nearly all UK website are modeled numbers (often modeled from flu infection scenarios) — that is it is a projection from the modeled infection rate (not actual tested people), extrapolated out to show how many will become seriously ill or die.

    Numbers from S. Korea where there is a very high rate of testing and investigations, and from the infections on board ships give a more enlightened picture especially when adjusted for people with known confounding illnesses.

    The key to tackling this outbreak is to slow the infection rate so that medical facilities are not overwhelmed (as seemed to have happened in Italy but now fixed). Personal isolation and good general cleanliness is key here.

  • Avatar

    Dan Paulson

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    It is important to note that we have not been informed on who or where the covid-19 virus was first isolated. It is not like doctors and research facilities to be humble about such things.

    Without a proper isolation of the virus, the question arises about what exactly is being tested? I have read estimates of as much as an 80% rate of false positives.

    If these ramblings turn out to be valid concerns, then the questions become; have we been facing a global pandemic worthy of massive action and panic, or have we been subject to a test of population control and social engineering?

    Unfortunately the latter is appearing the more likely choice.

    • Avatar

      Andy Rowlands

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      I would agree with your latter Dan. The globalists and eco-fascists failed to get us shut the world down with their climate scam, so they come up with a ‘killer virus’ and shut the world down. I rather suspect this is a field test to see how effective the virus is. It has a low mortality rate, so I would expect much more virulent viruses to appear as if by magic in the future, to help the UN in its ambition to kill off 85% of the human population.

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    Moffin

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    Hi Dan Paulson.

    A very important thing you stated in your comment is “we have not been informed on who”……

    You used the correct term of “informed” rather than “educated” as espoused by sheep parroting sheep.
    There is a vast majority whom one can inform until the cows come home, but will never be educated. (This could apply to myself.)
    Thank you for not being a sheep. I appreciate it.

    Matt oops. Moffin.

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    Garrard

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    While the above is all very – distracting – Professor Ferguson and his team went on to produce another report dated March 26 in which it is stated that the virus has an “R0 of 7.0 and will infected 7 billion people.” With 20% requiring hospitalisation that amounts to a staggering 1.4 billion. It is unfortunate that the G10 central banks have an influence in this subject matter as it only achieves protection of the global economy as opposed to life – It doesn’t take much consideration to realise that governments cannot exist without an economy and that they are willing to sacrifice human life to the tune of hundreds of millions to do so. Even at this early stage we see a global fatality rate of 4.6% which across a population of 7 million is 322 million and is only set to rise higher as we fall deeper into the pandemic. 4.6% fatality is not the same as the seasonal flue. Perhaps you would like to consider the report. Read here: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Global-Impact-26-03-2020.pdf

    • Avatar

      Andy Rowlands

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      Do you really think over 300 million will die from this virus? As of a few mins ago, Worldometer records 30,851 deaths.

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        Garrard

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        It matters not what I think, what matters is the content of the report dated March 26 produced by Neil Ferguson and his team at Imperial Collage, London who afford a gold standard in respect to this subject matter and that report states the virus has an R0 of 7.0 , anything lower is derived through mitigation or suppression strategies. The virus produces a 20% of infection hospitalisation rate which equates to 1.4 billion people, from the reports estimated number of 7 billion infections. You state “As of a few mins ago, Worldometer records 30,851 deaths.” This however is only two months into the spread of the virus – and thus has only just begun, so to suggest now that the figure of 30,851 deaths has any real correlation or significance to the final death toll is absurd. People’s life’s are going to be sacrificed in order to support the economy – unless of course people realise what is happening and continue to relax on their sofa’s and enjoy life with their families – in which case they will watch the global economies die. Government cannot exist without and economy, however people can exist without government. I believe the global population will make their own decisions in regards to who they believe should go and I doubt many will sacrifice their life’s for the sake of governments.

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          Garrard

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          Andy Rowlands, That 30,851 is derived from 661,000 infected case which represent only 0.94 of the 7 billion people that will be infected. It’s all well and good for people such as yourself at this early stage to state 30,851, but indulge me, what will you be saying when it is 100% of the 7 billion infected and not the 0.94% ?

          • Avatar

            Andy Rowlands

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            I seriously doubt seven billion people will be infected.

          • Avatar

            WhoKoo

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            Hi Andy.
            How many people have never had the flu?
            The pandemic virus has a favourite Rolling Stones song. “Time is on my side”.
            Regards. Moffin. oops.

          • Avatar

            Garrard

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            Andy, should I therefore consider your doubts as opposed to basic maths? I think not!

  • Avatar

    Mervyn

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    Don’t ever believe experts unless they qualify and quantify the impact of what they say like, “There is a 75% probability that 90% of people under 50 years old have an immaterial risk of dying from the coronavirus.”

    • Avatar

      Garrard

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      Mervyn, One need not believe an expert, one can see with their own eyes that there are 661,000 confirmed cases, one can see that 30,851 deaths have occurred from that 661,000, one can also see that 661,000 represents 0.94% of 7 billion, one can see that the death rate is currently 4.6%, one can easily therefore deduce that even at the rate of 4.6% it will result in 322, million deaths. You do need an expert, you merely only need to do very basic maths as I am sure you understand.

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