New Paper is Skeptical on Japan & Pacific Ocean Sea Rise

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According to fresh analysis, the sea levels around Japan have been rising slowly, without any acceleration component, since the end of the 1800s. The finding is consistent in all the long term trend tide gauges available. 

Some popular narratives, such as the accelerating sea levels of Guam wrongly rated 5 mm/yr., or the 3 feet, or 914.4 mm, sea level rise by 2050 forecast for Honolulu, are also briefly discussed.

The study is titled ‘Sea level oscillations in Japan and China since the start of the 20th century and consequences for coastal management – Part 1: Japan’ and is featured in the journal Ocean & Coastal Management Volume 169 (March 01, 2019, Pages 225-238)

Abstract

In Japan tide gauges are abundant, recording the sea levels since the end of the 19th century. Here I analyze the long-term tide gauges of Japan: the tide gauges of Oshoro, Wajima, Hosojima and Tonoura, that are affected to a lesser extent by crustal movement, and of Aburatsubo, which is more affected by crustal movement. Hosojima has an acceleration 1894 to 2018 of +0.0016 mm/yr2. Wajima has an acceleration 1894 to 2018 of +0.0046 mm/yr2. Oshoro has an acceleration 1906 to 2018 of −0.0058 mm/yr2. Tonoura has an acceleration 1894 to 1984 of −0.0446 mm/yr2. Aburatsubo, has an acceleration 1894 to 2018 of −0.0066 mm/yr2. There is no sign of any sea level acceleration around Japan since the start of the 20th century. The different tide gauges show low frequency (>10 years) oscillations of periodicity quasi-20 and quasi-60 years. The latter periodicity is the strongest in four cases out of five. As the sea levels have been oscillating, but not accelerating, in the long-term-trend tide gauges of Japan since the start of the 20th century, the same as all the other long-term-trend tide gauges of the world, it is increasingly unacceptable to base coastal management on alarmist prediction that are not supported by measurements.

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