Is UK Green Energy A Meaningful Supply System?

In my articles in September and October last year I addressed UK electricity generation and the Gridwatch website. There are various fanciful claims in the media about how much of our electricity is produced by the so-called ‘renewables’.

To update readers, below we show exactly how much is generated by wind, solar and biomass installations, using Gridwatch and various energy-related websites.

Wind farms

There are currently 284 wind farms in the UK, 252 on land and 32 around the coasts. Together they have the capacity at full tilt to produce 15 gigawatts (gw) if the wind is constantly blowing at the right speed through all the farms. If the wind is too slow, the turbines turn slower and produce less electricity. If the wind speed is above their maximum safe limit, they have to be braked to a stop to avoid potentially over-speeding and damaging the blades, bearings and electric motors.

Onshore turbines

The first onshore farm came online in August 1992 at Haverigg in Cumbria. It generated a modest 1.1mw from five turbines. It was decommissioned in 2004. The largest currently is at Whitelees on Eaglesham Moor in Scotland, which is capable of generating 539mw from 215 turbines, as seen in the image below.

There are currently 252 onshore wind farms in the UK, with 616 turbines in England, generating 753mw, 213 turbines in Northern Ireland generating 306mw, 1293 turbines in Scotland generating 2.2gw, and 498 turbines in Wales generating 376mw. Total onshore wind capacity at full tilt is 3.6gw.

In 2015, former PM David Cameron enacted legislation which effectively blocked any further wind farms onshore, and that is still in effect now. It prevents onshore wind developers from competing for contracts, and caused the rollout of new onshore wind capacity to fall by nearly 80{154653b9ea5f83bbbf00f55de12e21cba2da5b4b158a426ee0e27ae0c1b44117} in 2018, to the lowest level since 2011.

Offshore turbines

There are currently 32 operational offshore wind farms around the British coasts, 17 along the east coast, one in the English Channel and nine in the Irish Sea between the North Wales coast & Northumberland. The first one installed; Blyth Offshore, was decommissioned in 2019 after a life of 19 years. The operational offshore farms currently have the capacity to generate 12gw.

There are five new offshore wind farms under construction at the moment, which will provide an additional 5.1gw at full tilt. They are expected to come into use between 2020 and 2023. There are another five which have been proposed to be constructed between 2023 & 2025, which would provide an additional 5.4gw.

The image below is of Walney wind farm off the coast of Cumbria in the Irish Sea. This is currently the largest offshore wind farm in the UK, with 189 turbines capable of producing 659mw.

A typical 2mw wind turbine needs around 260 tons of steel. That requires around 300 tons of iron ore and around 170 tons of coking coal. Larger turbines require significantly more materials to produce.

Wind turbines were initially expected to last around 25 years before they needed replacing, but constant exposure to the weather around the UK has shown they are only lasting about 15 years before the blades start to de-laminate. This more frequent need for replacement will only serve to make wind-generated electricity even more expensive than it already is.

From December through February, wind turbines generally provide around 10gw a day, the rest of the year when wind speeds are generally lower, the average is around 5gw a day, around 30-35{154653b9ea5f83bbbf00f55de12e21cba2da5b4b158a426ee0e27ae0c1b44117} of their rated capacity.

I took my disabled Dad back to the family seat in Conwy in North Wales a few years ago, and while we were there, we went along the pier at Llandudno. We could see the Gwynt y Môr offshore farm, and as it was a calm clear summer’s day, not a single turbine was moving.

The Committee on Climate Change has said the UK will need to build at least 1,000mw of onshore wind every year for the next three decades if it hopes to meet its target to create a ‘carbon-neutral’ economy by 2050. This steady rollout is necessary, the Committee says, in addition to building offshore windfarms at four times the present rate, or the UK is unlikely to be able to develop enough generating capacity by 2050 to maintain a 24-hour electricity supply.

Lindsay McQuade, the chief executive of ScottishPower Renewables, said there was “broad political consensus to decarbonise our economy as rapidly as possible so that we live and work in a clean, green and sustainable manner. We expect cross-party commitment to deliver a viable route to market for onshore wind, the cheapest form of new electricity generation.

It’s nice to see the word ‘consensus’ used in its proper political setting for a change, but then you read wind power is “…the cheapest form of new electricity generation.” Really Mrs McQuade, who told you that?

Wind turbines also generate more cash when they’re switched off than when they’re working, with customers shouldering £649 million in payments over a decade. So-called ‘constraint payments’; a sort of compensation, have been paid to energy firms in charge of wind farms, when demand for electricity falls or winds are too strong for turbines to operate. These costs are added to consumers’ electricity bills, mostly to Scottish consumers.

Solar Farms

Solar farms, also known as solar parks or solar fields, are large areas of land containing interconnected solar panels positioned together to harvest large amounts of solar energy at the same time. They vary in size – often between one and 100 acres, and are located in agricultural or rural areas. Solar farms are designed to feed directly into the national grid, as opposed to individual solar panels which usually power a single home or building.

Electricity is generated from the sun by capturing the photons in the sun’s light using ‘photovoltaic (PV)’ solar panels. These panels contain ‘photovoltaic cells’ that collect the sun’s energy which an inverter then converts into electricity we can use. This form of renewable energy is often referred to as ‘solar PV.’ Any unused electricity generated is fed into the national grid to provide to other consumers around the country. Solar PV panels are typically placed on a south-facing roof of a home or building in order to maximise exposure to the sun.

Even though solar panel costs have dropped 70{154653b9ea5f83bbbf00f55de12e21cba2da5b4b158a426ee0e27ae0c1b44117} since 2010 (mainly due to significant subsidies), installing solar panels is still a fairly expensive investment. To install panels on your home’s roof will still set you back between £5000 and £15,000 for the panels, equipment and installation costs, and it takes about 15-20 years before you catch up on your investment. The major solar parks across Britain also require huge investments to plan and construct. The Cleve Hill Solar Park currently proposed for construction in Kent is set to cost around £400 million which will take quite some time for the developers to recoup.

Since we are not blessed with a particularly sunny climate in the UK, solar panels are somewhat restricted to the amount of power they can generate. Although solar panels can still function on overcast and rainy days, their efficiency drops greatly during these times. Once the sun has set, they also cease to function and since electricity is expensive and difficult to store, backup sources of electricity are needed during the night.

Generation also varies quite significantly throughout the year. For example, between April and June 2017, the UK generated 6{154653b9ea5f83bbbf00f55de12e21cba2da5b4b158a426ee0e27ae0c1b44117} of the country’s total electricity from solar, but between October and December, it was just 1.5{154653b9ea5f83bbbf00f55de12e21cba2da5b4b158a426ee0e27ae0c1b44117}. Solar panels themselves are also fairly inefficient and of the sunlight that enters a solar PV panel, only around 16{154653b9ea5f83bbbf00f55de12e21cba2da5b4b158a426ee0e27ae0c1b44117} gets converted into electricity.

Since we cannot generate solar energy during the night, it makes sense to store up excess energy generated during the day to use when the sun sets. At this time however, the proposed ‘solar batteries’ have not yet been developed enough to be commercially viable.

As of 2015, there were 426 solar farms located in the UK, mostly in the south of England where it is generally sunnier. The largest is currently Shotwick Solar Park in Flintshire, North Wales. It is a 250-acre site with a total capacity of 72.2mw, as seen below.

As of 2018, total solar capacity in the UK was 13gw, with the record generation as of May 14th 2019 at 9.55gw according to Wikipedia, and just over 4gw according to Gridwatch.

Biomass

There are currently two dedicated biomass power stations in the UK; Lynemouth in Scotland and Uskmouth in South Wales, which burn pulverised woodchips. Drax in Yorkshire has had four of it’s six incinerators converted from coal to biomass, with plans to convert the remaining two.

The Large Combustion Plant Directive issued in 2001, aimed to reduce ‘carbon emissions’ throughout Europe. The deadline of 1st January 2008 allowed plants that did not comply with the strict emission limits to opt-out, whereby they could operate for a further 20,000 hours or until 2015 at which point they had to close.

There are currently only six coal-fired power stations left operating in the UK; Aberthaw B, Drax, Fiddlers Ferry, Kilroot, Ratcliffe and West Burton. Of those, Aberthaw B and Fiddlers Ferry are due to close in March this year, Kilroot has been sold to a Czech company and there are currently no plans to close it. West Burton is due to close in 2021. At present there are no plans to close Ratcliffe in Nottinghamshire, as it is fully compliant with current emissions regulations.

Biomass can presently supply about 3gw at full tilt, about 5{154653b9ea5f83bbbf00f55de12e21cba2da5b4b158a426ee0e27ae0c1b44117} of our average daily requirements.

Nuclear

Nuclear power is sometimes described as a renewable energy source, so I have included it here. There are currently eight nuclear power stations operating in the UK. They are Dungeness B (1.2gw), Hartlepool (1.3gw), Heysham1 (1.2gw), Heysham 2 (1.3gw), Hinkley Point B (840mw), Hunterston B (830mw), Sizewell B (1.2gw) and Torness (1.3gw). Of these, all bar Sizewell B are second-generation Advanced Gas-Cooled reactors, while Sizewell B is a third-generation Pressurized-Water Reactor.

Hinkley Point 'B' power station

Since 2006 Hinkley Point B (above) and Hunterston B had been restricted to about 70{154653b9ea5f83bbbf00f55de12e21cba2da5b4b158a426ee0e27ae0c1b44117} of normal output because of boiler-related problems requiring that they operate at reduced boiler temperatures. In 2013 these two stations’ power increased to about 80{154653b9ea5f83bbbf00f55de12e21cba2da5b4b158a426ee0e27ae0c1b44117} of normal output following modifications.

In 2010 EDF announced a 5-year life extension for both Heysham 1 and Hartlepool to enable further generation until 2024. In 2012 EDF announced it expects seven-year life extensions on average across all AGCs, including the recently life-extended Heysham 1 and Hartlepool. A 20-year life extension is the strategic target for the Sizewell B PWR.

In December 2012 EDF announced that Hinkley Point B and Hunterston B had been given seven-year life extensions, from 2016 to 2023, and the following November, EDF announced that Hartlepool had been given a five-year life extension, from 2019 to 2024.

Nuclear can presently supply approximately 7gw maximum, around 15-20{154653b9ea5f83bbbf00f55de12e21cba2da5b4b158a426ee0e27ae0c1b44117} of our average daily requirements. Assuming the AGC reactors close as planned by 2024, that will leave just the PWR reactor at Sizewell, which on its own can only produce 1.2gw.

In 2018, there were six new fourth-generation nuclear power stations planned or under construction. By January 2019, caused in part by the paranoia surrounding the Fukushima incident, three of the six had been cancelled. Of the remaining three, Bradwell B (2.3gw), Hinkley Point C (3.2gw) and Sizewell C (3.2gw) are still active projects. Bradwell B is due to start generation in 2030, Hinkley Point C by 2023, and Sizewell C is due to start construction next year.

UK demand

The average UK daily demand is around 40gw during the day, rising to around 45gw at peak times between 5pm and 8pm, though it can rise to around 55gw during exceptionally cold periods. It then reduces during the evenings to around 25gw by about 4am. For clarity, one megawatt (mw) is one million watts. One gigawatt (gw) is one billion watts.

At full capacity, gas can currently provide 25gw, nuclear can provide 7gw, and coal can provide 10gw. As of the time of writing, nuclear is fairly steady at around 6gw, gas varies between 5 and 15gw depending on demand, and coal varies between 1 and 5gw. When wind generation increases, gas and coal production are scaled back.

Hydro-electric can provide 1gw, biomass 3gw and pumped storage an additional 2.7gw for short periods.

Several UK electricity suppliers claim their electricity is ‘100{154653b9ea5f83bbbf00f55de12e21cba2da5b4b158a426ee0e27ae0c1b44117} renewable’, but this is simply not true, as all the electricity generated goes into the national grid. The only way a company could truthfully claim to be 100{154653b9ea5f83bbbf00f55de12e21cba2da5b4b158a426ee0e27ae0c1b44117} renewable is if they had paid for new pylons, transmission lines, sub-stations and underground cables into individual homes, completely separate from the existing national grid. Anyone claiming otherwise, as the former MP and Defence Minister Alan Clark said during the Matrix Churchill trial, is being “economical with the actualitae”.

What does the future hold?

If future British governments press ahead with current plans to shut down the remaining coal, gas, nuclear, hydro-electric and pumped storage plants by 2050, we will face an energy shortage never before experienced. By 2050 we may have enough wind, solar and biomass capacity to generate about 50-60{154653b9ea5f83bbbf00f55de12e21cba2da5b4b158a426ee0e27ae0c1b44117} of our daily requirements (assuming every day has clear skies and the wind is blowing at the right speed for the turbines every day), so where will the other 40-50{154653b9ea5f83bbbf00f55de12e21cba2da5b4b158a426ee0e27ae0c1b44117} come from? The three Interconnectors can supply a maximum of 4gw combined; 2gw through the French and 1gw each through the Belgian and Dutch.

As I’d mentioned in my previous articles, removing the supply of gas will mean every home, office, hospital and factory will have to use electricity for heating. This will require an immense upgrade to the existing national grid, which will take decades and cost many millions, and the tax-payer will have to foot the bill. This will also increase the electricity demand significantly.

The answer as I see it is that either we spend an unprecedented amount (in the trillions, which will require massive cut-backs to everything else) between now and 2050 to build huge numbers of wind and solar farms across the UK, or we will have to implement permanent power cuts on a rota, to ensure places like hospitals, the emergency services and government buildings have power 24 hours a day.

But….what happens on days that are heavy overcast and there is little or no wind? Where does our electricity come from then? Are the people of 2050 going to see electricity as a very expensive luxury only the mega-rich can afford, while the majority of the population huddle freezing in the dark?


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Comments (8)

  • Avatar

    chris

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    And home solar power is useless when the power is out. They don’t work if there isn’t any incoming power. There are two reasons for this, the first is to synchronize with the incoming power, the other is to not harm anyone who might be working on the wires.

    Reply

  • Avatar

    Peter F Gill

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    I did a quick check this evening 21 January at 18:45 hrs for UK electricity generation. All figure in rounded GW. Coal & so called Biomass (Drax) 3 and 4 respectively, Gas 26, Nuclear 7, Hydro 2, Imports 2, Wind 3 and Solar 0. So in spite of the nonsense of Biomass carbonaceous fuels account for over 70% of generation and including nuclear almost 90% of generation was from the latter sources. Wind accounted for about 7% and the rest was imported power via interconnectors. Solar was of course 0% as it is night time and we sensibly avoided a feed in tariff that would enable shining lights at the solar panels to generate “solar” power at night. Even the Spanish no longer make that mistake.
    To check in future try EM’s web site at http://euanmearns.com/about-euan-mearns/

    Reply

    • Avatar

      Andy Rowlands

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      I look at Gridwatch every day.

      Reply

  • Avatar

    Joseph Olson

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    The crown owns the UK offshore waters and gladly leases rights to wind mill bird shredders.
    Royal grifters never miss a chance to turn a trick.

    Reply

  • Avatar

    Matt

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    At first glance the photo with the wind turbines on the land looked like a war cemetery. Possibly prophetic.

    Reply

    • Avatar

      Andy Rowlands

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      Now you mention it, it does kind of look like that yes!

      Reply

  • Avatar

    Alan

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    There is another problem with renewable energy which we experience recently with a major blackout. The grid system needs to respond quickly to restore frequency when there is a loss of generation due to faults. The very rapid initial response comes from the governor actions on steam generating plant using the energy available because of the high pressure steam. This is slowly being reduced and as a result we had the recent power failure. I understand the same is happening in Australia.

    Reply

    • Avatar

      Andy Rowlands

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      Australia had two power outages foir much those reasons last year I think it was, and I think Germany has had at least one as well.

      Reply

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