Global Warming ‘Truth will out!’

Written by Roger Higgs DPhil Oxford

IPCC: Did police interview other victims? | HOAXTEAD RESEARCH
It seems increasingly likely that the truth about CO2’s non-involvement in global warming will out soon, hastened by the global cooling now in progress. Yes, cooling has been occurring since February 2016, lasting 3.4 years so far, as shown by NASA’s ‘Global Monthly Mean Surface Temperature Change’ chart here (scroll down to the sixth graph on the list)  …

Like many others, I predict that this cooling will continue for years and, probably, decades if not longer, e.g. …
See also Bullet 25 here …

25) Global cooling has been progress 3.4 yrs (since Feb 2016; NASA global monthly temp. graph online). Another 2 or 3 yrs of cooling should convince even the IPCC that rising CO2 is harmless. I predict cooling will last until at least 2044, matching the sun’s 28-yr decline from 1991 to today & allowing for the 25-yr time-lag (Bullet 21).

In that NASA monthly temperature graph (above), you’ll notice how the latest reading is for ‘2019.38’ (i.e. May 2019; hover your cursor over the last red square to ‘illuminate’ it). Already, in just 3 years (since the Feb 2016 temperature peak), Earth has cooled 0.5 centigrade degrees; that’s fully one-third of IPCC’s dreaded “1.5 degrees by 2100”, wiped out in 3 years.
The next temperature reading, expected within 3 or 4 weeks, will be for ‘2019.46’ (June). Excitingly, if you examine (hover over) previous years in the chart, you’ll see that the June temperature is usually considerably cooler than May. So keep an eye on NASA’s chart!
Another 2 or 3 years of cooling will spell the beginning of the end of the CO2 Delusion. The made-made-warming rats will be scrambling to leave the sinking ship.
Of course, this pre-supposes that NASA won’t fiddle the data. Fortunately, we have on our side an honest and very senior atmospheric scientist, highly placed in a major temperature-data-gathering institute 
 

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Comments (15)

  • Avatar

    Martin Knox

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    Thank you for prosecuting exoneration of CO2. You seem to have two thrusts: 1) empirical invalidation of climate science and 2) theoretical rejection of greenhouse gases. From a statistical standpoint, I would prefer that 1) is based on data samples of at least 10 years, even if this means waiting to get it. In the meantime I am studying Blair Macdonald’s treatise but I am finding it difficult to predict warming consequences of CO2, O2 and N2, through personal lack of physics understanding. Is there any data comparing roles of the different gases in the Earth’s radiation retention measured by the IR and Raman spectroscopes? Keep up the good work!

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      Gary Russell

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      Hi Martin Knox. Check out this link to a Physics Lectures on the Atmosphere. (61 really short lectures) Will give you all the physics basis. This covers all the gases and spectrums from a quantum physics perspective. I found it helped immensely. http://www.ilectureonline.com/lectures/subject/ASTRONOMY/2/355

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        Geraint Hughes

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        unfortunately Gary, those links of yours are a total waste of time. They spew the typical, “Fake” climate alarmist twaddle talking view of things. The radiation GHE effect of gases has already been shown to be complete lies. If a gas aborbs IR, it does not make the surface warmer, the only effect it can have is to make the surface cooler. Anyone who says it makes the surface warmer, is a liar, its actually that simple. For direct proof that anyone can follow watch this simple video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FgjT_665T6U&t=1s The filament cools, it does not warm, it can not be any other way.

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    edmh

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    When will people realise that any CO2 reduction policy should also be seen in a longer-term context:
    ·The modern short pulse of beneficial Global warming stopped 20 years ago and recent global temperatures are now stable or declining.
    ·According to reliable Ice Core records the last millennium 1000 – 2000 AD was the coldest of our current Holocene interglacial and the world had already been cooling quite rapidly since before Roman times, in fact since ~1000 BC.
    ·At 11,000 years old, our Holocene interglacial, responsible for all man-kind’s advances, from living in caves to microprocessors, is coming to its end.
    ·The weather gets worse in colder times.
    ·The world will very soon, (on a geological time scale), revert to a true glaciation, again resulting in mile high ice sheets over New York.

    The prospect of even moving in a cooling direction is something to be truly scared about, both for the biosphere and for man-kind.

    Spending any effort, let alone GDP scale costs, trying to stop the UK’s 1% of something that has not been happening for 3 millennia seems monumentally stupid.

    https://edmhdotme.wordpress.com/global-man-made-co2-emissions-1965-2018-bp-data/
    https://edmhdotme.wordpress.com/holocene-context-for-catastrophic-anthropogenic-global-warming/

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    Bevan Dockery

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    The model used as the basis for determining the Greenhouse effect gave the Earth’s temperature without greenhouse gases as -18 deg.C, ie 255 deg.K. Planck’s formulae with emissivity of 1, gives the relevant radiant energy density as 3.199 x10^-6 Joules per cubic metre.
    The greenhouse effect is said to be 33 deg. making the Earth with greenhouse gases to have a temperature of +15 deg.C, ie 288 deg.K. Planck’s formulae with emissivity of 1, gives the radiant energy density as 5.205 x10^-6 J/m^3. Thus the greenhouse effect is said to cause the Earth to radiate an additional 2.006 x10^-6 J/m^3. That is the Earth with greenhouse gases emits radiation by a factor of 1.63 more than the Earth without greenhouse gases.

    The major cause of this increase is said to be CO2. This gas has its main radiation absorption at wavelengths of 4.3 microns and 15 microns. Planck’s formulae, emissivity 1, for the band 4.0 to 4.6 microns gives a radiation energy density of 1.872×10^-8 J/m^3 or 0.0036 of the Earth emission at 288 deg.K. For the band 14.7 to 15.3 microns, it gives a radiation energy density of 1.464×10^-7 J/m^3 or 0.0281 of the Earth emission at 288 deg.K.

    The Wien formula relating wavelength to temperature determines that the 15 micron wavelength is the peak for a body at -80 deg.C while the 4.3 micron wavelength is the peak for a body at 400 deg.C. Hence the 15 micron band cannot heat the Earth’s surface which is already far hotter. That leaves the radiant energy density of 1.872×10^-8 J/m^3 from the 4.3 micron band as the source of the 2.006 x10^-6 J/m^3 or a multiplier effect of about 100. This is obviously untenable for the science of thermodynamics – until the UN IPCC came on the scene with their reactivation of the previously rejected greenhouse effect.

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      Befuddled Ben

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      Can anyone confirm that, ignoring the obvious violation of the laws of thermodynamics, to account for a dubiously calculated mismatch between the estimated temperature (-18C?) of the Earth based on the amount of solar thermal energy actually reaching the Earth (i.e., that which is not reflected back into space) and the measured average temperature of the Earth (15C?), the IPCC maintains that back-radiation from CO2 of absorbed thermal energy originating from the surface supplies EXTRA heating (i.e., X Joules absorbed, X+ Joules returned) and that it is not just a zero sum game (X absorbed, X returned) or even an X absorbed, less than X returned process? If there’s no extra energy, how can there be any extra heating?

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        Bevan Dockery

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        Ben,
        The calculation of -18deg.C for the Earth without greenhouse gases was derived from a perfectly uniform model Earth at -18 deg.C everywhere using the Stefan-Boltzmann equation. That means a perfectly smooth sphere with the same emissivity everywhere, no oceans, ice caps, mountains or valley’s and NO atmosphere with no night and day or equator and poles.
        It is the Earth’s atmosphere which provides the additional temperature experienced on our real Earth in accordance with the old-fashioned Universal Gas Laws, completely ignored by the UN-IPCC but updated and refined in recent years by Doug Cotton.

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          Befuddled Ben

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          Thanks, Ben. I’m aware that the -18C (is this universally accepted or just the IPCC’s calculation?) is for a black body sphere and that the Earth is warmer because it has an atmosphere. But what I want to know is: does the IPCC maintain that radiation from the surface and atmospheric CO2 are engaged in some kind of game of thermal energy ping-pong and that’s why the Earth is warmer or are they saying that CO2 also adds EXTRA joules to the system and, if so, where on Earth (pun intended) do they think this extra energy comes from? Doug Cotton’s explanation is much simpler and, as you say, in accordance with the Universal Gas Laws. Also, no need for any magical and thermodynamically impossible, back-radiation process.

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            Bevan Dockery

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            Befuddled Ben,
            The -18 deg.C is an Earth at 255 deg.K after allowing the albedo to be 0.3 thereby reducing the radiation from one quarter of the Sun’s irradiance at the Earth’s surface, 342.5 W/m^2 to 239.8 W/m^2 ie 10/7 of 342.4 W/m^2. It is the factor of one quarter of the Sun’s irradiance that was central to the recent public dispute between Dr Roy Spencer and Joe Postma as representative of a flat Earth.

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    tom0mason

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    As the sun goes quiet letting more cosmic rays enter our atmosphere and biosphere, it radically affects our weather, climate and seismic activity.

    As Danish Professor Henrik Svensmark shows how solar activity modulates cosmic rays striking the atmosphere and thus the climate-impacting cloud cover (increases in cosmic rays impacting the Earth’s atmosphere giving more cloud cover). Dr. Svensmark shows that there are powerful correlations worldwide between solar activity and climatic cycles, and so the sun is clearly playing a role in combination with the cosmic cloud-seeding rays. Hundreds of studies confirm this. Observations and proxy data show that “when you have high cosmic rays, you have a cold climate” because of greater cloud cover. According to Svensmark, the net effect of clouds is to cool the Earth by up to 30 W/m2.
    Clouds are extremely important for the Earth’s energy budget. The net effect is about 20 to 30 watts per square meter.” That figure is great in terms of impact on climate change, and it is grossly neglected by CO2-fixated climate scientists.
    His research shows there is a clear link between low cloud cover formation and galactic cosmic rays
    From https://climatechangedispatch.com/astrophysicist-solar-activity-global-climate/
    ~~~~~~~

    Some other recent cooling effects the sun is having on planet Earth —

    Sept. 27, 2018: The sun is entering one of the deepest Solar Minima of the Space Age. Sunspots have been absent for most of 2018, and the sun’s ultraviolet output has sharply dropped. New research shows that Earth’s upper atmosphere is responding.
    “We see a cooling trend,” says Martin Mlynczak of NASA’s Langley Research Center. “High above Earth’s surface, near the edge of space, our atmosphere is losing heat energy. If current trends continue, it could soon set a Space Age record for cold.”
    “The thermosphere always cools off during Solar Minimum. It’s one of the most important ways the solar cycle affects our planet,” explains Mlynczak, who is the associate principal investigator for SABER onboard NASA’s TIMED satellite.
    https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2018/09/27/the-chill-of-solar-minimum/

    Satellite observations of polar mesospheric clouds by the solar backscattered ultraviolet spectral radiometer: Evidence of a solar cycle dependence ...
    <em>"The increase [polar mesospheric clouds](up to a factor of 10 at some brightness levels) in the occurrence frequency from solar maximum to solar minimum conditions indicates an anticorrelation with solar activity, an effect that also appears to be present in noctilucent cloud sightings over the past several decades. Garcia [1989] suggested that PMC should be modulated by changes in the solar Lyman‐alpha (121.6 nm) flux through its strong photodissociation control of upper mesospheric water vapor."</em> From:https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/90JD02312
    ·
    Huge Blue Cloud Circles the North Pole, May 31, 2019: A huge blue cloud of frosted meteor smoke is pinwheeling around the Arctic Circle. NASA’s AIM spacecraft spotted its formation on May 20th, and it has since circled the North Pole one and a half times, expanding in size more than 200-fold.
    “These are noctilucent clouds,” says Cora Randall of the AIM science team at the University of Colorado. “And they are going strong.” But these NLCs are different. They’re unusually strong and congregated in a coherent spinning mass, instead of spreading as usual all across the polar cap.
    “This is most likely a sign of planetary wave activity,” says Randall.
    Planetary waves are enormous ripples of temperature and pressure that form in Earth’s atmosphere in response to Coriolis forces. They are responsible in part for undulations in the jet stream and can have a major influence on global weather. All rotating planets with atmospheres have these kind of waves.
    From:https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2019/05/31/huge-blue-cloud-circles-the-north-pole/
    ·
    June 19, 2019: The 2019 season for noctilucent clouds (NLCs) has been remarkable, maybe the best ever, with NLCs appearing as far south as Los Angeles CA and Albuquerque NM. What’s going on? Researchers aren’t sure, but Lynn Harvey of the University of Colorado’s Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics has just found an important clue.
    “The mesosphere is quite wet,” she says. “Water vapor concentrations are at their highest levels for the past 12 years.”
    It’s a veritable tidal wave. Water vapor concentrations at lower latitudes (35 to 45 N) have nearly doubled their normal values, providing a surplus of H2O molecules for noctilucent clouds. Researchers aren’t sure where the water is coming from, though.
    From: https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2019/06/19/mysterious-moisture-in-the-mesosphere/

    Explosive volcanic eruptions triggered by cosmic rays: Volcano as a bubble chamber
    “Volcanoes with silica-rich and highly viscous magma tend to produce violent explosive eruptions that result in disasters in local communities and that strongly affect the global environment. We examined the timing of 11 eruptive events that produced silica-rich magma from four volcanoes in Japan (Mt. Fuji, Mt. Usu, Myojinsho, and Satsuma-Iwo-jima) over the past 306 years (from AD 1700 to AD 2005). Nine of the 11 events occurred during inactive phases of solar magnetic activity (solar minimum), which is well indexed by the group sunspot number. ”
    ·
    Recently there has been an up-tick in volcanic activity …
    Yet another high-impact eruption took place at Manam volcano, Papua New Guinea on Friday June 28 — following on from the previous day’s explosion to 12.2 km, and the general uptick which began last year.
    A thick volcanic ash plume, rising to at least 50,000 feet (15.2 km) above sea level, was spotted by the Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) Darwin at 06:59 UTC on June 28 using HIMAWARI-8 satellite imagery.
    The eruption comes hot on the heels of yesterday’s ejection to 40,000 feet (12.2 km).
    ·
    This after June 25, powerful high-level eruptions have been ongoing at Raikoke volcano, Russia ever-since the massive unexpected explosion that took place on June 21-22.
    According to the Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) Tokyo, today’s eruption sent volcanic ash to an estimated 38,000 feet (11.6 km) above sea level, which is now shifting at 20 kts in a NNE direction.
    ·
    And June 18, Multiple major-level eruptions have taken place at Mexico’s Popocatépetl volcano over the past 24 hours, continuing the stratovolcano’s powerful uptick of late.
    According to the Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) Washington, the largest eruption fired a thick ash column to an estimated 42,000 feet (12.8 km) above sea level, and comfortably into the stratosphere.
    ·
    And June 9 Sumatra’s incredibly active Sinabung Volcano has exploded in spectacular fashion again today, , sending volcanic ash high into the atmosphere. The explosion also coincided with a minor G1 geomagnetic storm.
    The Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) Darwin is warning of a thick ash plume rising to a lofty 55,000 feet (16.7 km).
    ·
    Note :Particulates ejected to altitudes above 32,800 feet (10 km) have a direct cooling effect on the planet.
    From https://electroverse.net/category/volcanic-seismic-activity/
    ~~~~~~~~
    IMO the UN-IPCC has the temerity to imply that the sun’s effects on our climate is minuscule as TSI does vary much. For them it’s all about the might of the CO2, a gas that has increased over the decades with NO observed, measured effects on our climate, and is improving our biosphere by greening the planet.

    Finally if it is all CO2’s fault explain this —
    http://www.climate4you.com/images/GISP2%20TemperatureSince10700%20BP%20with%20CO2%20from%20EPICA%20DomeC.gif

    • Avatar

      tom0mason

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      Sorry about the formatting there. I don’t know what happened as all the text was imported from a plain text document. Ho-hum the wonders of copy and paste!

      Also the line at the end should read —
      IMO the UN-IPCC has the temerity to imply that the sun’s effects on our climate is minuscule as TSI does NOT vary much.

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    John O'Sullivan

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    Tom, a way to solve that text overrun problem is to copy and paste the original quote into a Word doc as plain text before posting it here. If you don’t have Word then the free software, apache openoffice, will do it, too.

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      tom0mason

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      Yes John O’Sullivan, indeed.
      However I had copied all the quotes to a text document (I’m on Linux and used Leafpad “GTK+ based simple text editor”, it does not, can not use formatted text – just simple text.), there was no formatting codes showing in the text. Indeed I have copied this very text to other sites recently with no apparent problems.
      I did note that on my shaky internet link it took an inordinate time to upload to you, more than a minute. Ho-humm just one of those weird problems of the digital age I suppose.
      Have a good day.
      Tom.

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    John O'Sullivan

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    Understood, Tom. Just a case of muddling through, I guess.

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    Philip R Tripp

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    Historically atmospheric CO2 rises after a rise in global temperature, it therefore can’t be the cause of the warming.

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