Does global COOLING cause heat-waves?
Could it be that global COOLING causes heat-waves? Surely not! Yet it does! So let’s investigate this further, but first a number of principles that we’ve explained before:
The usual temperature, climate and weather for any place on Earth, in any month of the year, is mainly dominated by the amount of sunshine and the amount of moisture. Latitude and season determine the amount of sunshine and thus warmth, whereas moisture has a moderating effect. Heat-waves are unusual spells of unusually warm days.
- All moisture comes from the sea. It is transported through the air onto the land and some returns through rivers to the sea. Thus places near the sea receive more moisture than places far inland, reason why all continents have deserts in their centres.
- Global temperature is dominated by the oceans because they have a much larger heat capacity than the land. Thus global temperature is best measured at sea.
When the planet cools, seas are colder than usual. Thus there is less evaporation and less moisture for the land. But it becomes worse, because winds tend to go from warmer to colder places. So on average, there is less sea wind and more land wind than usual. Thus more moisture than usual from the land, ends up in the sea. Conversely less moisture from the sea ends up on land.. The result is that the land becomes drier, sooner than usual, which gives rise to heat-waves. Nights, however, remain colder than usual. Thus the weather and climate become more desert-like.
Important points:
- climate often works contrary to intuition.
- measuring land temperatures is not a good way of measuring global temperature.
- a cool(ing) sea makes heat-waves, droughts and bushfires more likely.
- wherever cold seas flow past continents, they cause desert climates (California, Chile, Galapagos, etc.)
- global cooling has an immediate effect on the land, and affects oceans much later due to their heat capacity.
- global cooling makes heat-waves and droughts more likely, as well as bush fires.
- global cooling diminishes agricultural production.
Deluges of snow and rain. Why?
The world has been hard-hit by abnormal weather in late 2010 and early 2011. Many articles have been written and opinions voiced. Some even blame global warming, but what really happened?
It is indeed an unusual co-incidence of natural climate processes, which boil down to the following scenario:
- the world has been cooling slightly due to a change in solar activity, as borne out by the late and few sunspots for the coming Cycle 24. This alone accounts for:
- in the summer of 2010: droughts at mid-latitudes as explained above, accompanied by heat waves and bush fires
- in the summer of 2010: droughts at the centres of continents with abnormally low temperatures in the northern winter
- in the winter of 2010: (some) snow falling early, colder winter
- in the winter of 2010: (some) snow falling at lower latitudes, colder winter
- during the same time over the past three years, the oceans have experienced an unusually strong El Niño, during which ocean currents stagnate, which accounts for:
- a massive pool of warm water accumulating in the tropics
- the warmer water should have triggered an over-active hurricane season but hurricanes cannot develop strength (spin) if they cannot move to higher latitudes where the coriolis force is stronger. When they did, they moved over colder water, which extinguished them. Because of land winds, none could make a land-fall.
- seas in higher latitudes becoming colder than usual, resulting in
- summer: the drying of continents, heat waves, droughts, bush fires, etc.
- winter: early snow over larger areas
- then the El Niño ended, followed by La Niña when oceans begin to circulate again. The massive pool of warm tropical water began its journey poleward to higher latitudes, exactly when winter began in the north and summer in the south, causing:
- in the north: massive amounts of snow to fall on the still cold land. The snow, reflecting sunlight, further cooled the land, resulting in more sea wind with more snow over ever larger areas. Note, this is how an ice age begins!
- in the south: massive torrential rains on continental margins, accompanied by flooding.
An extraordinary conspiracy of natural factors indeed! Its aftermath will be felt as a thorough disruption in agricultural productivity, most likely resulting in serious famines world-wide, accompanied by social unrestAn extraordinary conspiracy of natural factors indeed! Its aftermath will be felt as a thorough disruption in agricultural productivity, most likely resulting in serious famines world-wide, accompanied by social unrest.
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Alan Thorpe
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Is this really correct? Winds are determined by pressure and they go from high pressure to low pressure. Warm air rises causing low pressure, so winds go from cold to hot.
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jerry krause
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Hi Alan and Floor,
Alan, you refer to “because winds tend to go from warmer to colder places”. The key to understanding this is his statements: “The usual temperature, climate and weather for any place on Earth, in any month of the year, is mainly dominated by the amount of sunshine and the amount of moisture.” And “All moisture comes from the sea. It is transported through the air onto the land and some returns through rivers to the sea.” Which are true if one carefully considers them.
The consistently warmest (with a few exceptions which Floor lists) region of the earth is in the tropics because of sunshine. So, it is in the tropics where most of the water, which falls on the land, originates. And a good portion of the water which evaporates from the tropical oceans does fall back into the tropical oceans; but not all. A portion of moisture lifted from the ocean’s surfaces to high into the atmosphere does not immediately precipitate. This is the moisture which eventually falls on the land surfaces at the higher latitudes.
Alan, what you overlook is that the vertical convection of a thunderstorm creates a high pressure region at high altitude over the low pressure region at the surface of the tropics. And that the colder surfaces at the higher latitudes create high pressure regions at the earth’s land surface, so there is the generally surface atmospheric flow from the high pressure regions at higher latitudes toward the tropics. So at high altitude the atmospheric flow is from high pressure regions to low pressure regions and the same is true for the surface atmosphere flow.
What commonly overlooked is that above low pressure at the surface is high pressure near the top of the troposphere or vice versa.
So, Floor’s post alerts us to “climate often works contrary to intuition” if we do not observe everything which we should.
Have a good day, Jerry
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James McGinn
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Jerry:
Alan, what you overlook is that the vertical convection of a thunderstorm
JMcG:
Nonsense. The uplift in thunderstorms is caused by the low pressure that is being introduced by vortices above that are channeling the low pressure energy of the jet stream. Convection does not (and cannot) cause low pressure at lower altitudes. This is a desperately silly thing to believe. You are just spreading the propaganda produced by the meteorology lobby.
Jerry:
What commonly overlooked is that above low pressure at the surface is high pressure near the top of the troposphere or vice versa.
JMcG:
Surreal. You are just making this up. You have no clue, Jerry.
Jerry:
So, Floor’s post alerts us to “climate often works contrary to intuition” if we do not observe everything which we should.
JMcG:
No, Jerry. You are just demonstrating that you are gullible and foolish. Storms are counterintuitive because we don’t understand the lifecycle of a vortices and we don’t realize that we only observe the final stage of a vortices existence, which often occurs closer to the ground. Convective notions of storms are cartoons, the basis of which is an analogy to a pot boiling on a stove. Science involves empirical facts not unrestrained imagination and convenient analogies.
James McGinn / Solving Tornadoes
Why Storms are Wet.
https://www.thunderbolts.info/forum/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=16841
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James McGinn
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Alan asked:
“Is this really correct? Winds are determined by pressure and they go from high pressure to low pressure. Warm air rises causing low pressure, so winds go from cold to hot.”
JMcG:
You ask a good question and I’m the right person to answer it. I am the #1 expert in the world on the question surrounding atmospheric flow and storms.
In general this article by Floor Anthoni (is this a real name?) is highly accurate. For example the points entitled “Important Points” is spot on! The high heat capacity of the liquid water in the oceans, on land, and in the air (note: all of the H2O in the atmosphere is liquid vapor H2O, not gaseous H2O) provides the temperature moderation function on our planet.
But the author also harbors many of the misconceptions that have been promoted by the pseudoscientific institution of meteorology. (Meteorology is a conversational science that evolved along the lines of telling the public stories that fit anecdotal observations. It is not an empirical science.)
Are winds determined by pressure differentials. Well, yes and no. Obviously its not simply a matter of pressure differential causing winds. Because if it was this simple there would be no gusty winds and no highly focused streams, like jet streams. Instead there would be only droll, constant winds. So, what causes the gusty, focused winds? The answer is vortices.
Vortices are the pressure relief valves of the atmosphere. You see, without vortices differences of pressure would be much greater on this planet due to the fact that gases alone cannot stream. Streaming requires structure to isolate the flow of the stream from the natural friction and dispersion associated with the gases. Sheaths of vortices literally spin up on wind shear boundaries in the atmosphere. In other words, when you see a tornado you are seeing something that is more than just N2, O2, H2O and trace elements. The “more” you are seeing is a consequence of H2O nanodroplets spinning up on wind shear boundaries. Specifically, the surface tension of the H2O is maximized under wind shear conditions to produce a plasma of surface-tension-maximized H2O. And it is this plasma that forms the sheaths of vortices, including tornadoes. This plasma isolates the flow and provides a slick inner surface, allowing winds to accelerate up to 300 mph.
Meteorology is replete with all kinds of pseudoscientific notions intended to placate the public by appealing to the lowest common denominator of our anecdotal perceptions. It is a conversation. It is not real science. The diatribe of conversational BS that emanates from their collective orifices should be ignored. They are not seeking empirical truth they are seeking a consensus to drown out the observations that they have systematically failed to explain.
Vortices are not simple or obvious. Us humans usually only notice vortices when they are in their last stage of existence, under low pressure conditions of a storm. At this stage it is the residual momentum of the greater vortices that is causing the storm and gusty, low pressure winds. It is this momentum of vortices that throws off our perception. Anecdotally it seems as if vortices are a residual consequence of what ever is the larger cause of storms. But, in actuality, vortices are the cause of storms and their low pressure gusty winds.
Alan:
“Warm air rises causing low pressure, so winds go from cold to hot.”
JMcG:
No. This is nonsense. Convection is meteorological pseudoscience. Warmer air is usually wetter air. And wetter air is ALWAYS heavier (not lighter) than drier air. (So, the only place warm air rises is in deserts.) (This is because wetter air contains more nanodroplets of liquid H2O. There is zero gaseous H2O in earth’s atmosphere. Only idiots believe this propaganda.)
Vortices high in the troposphere produce 99 percent of the uplift that is witnessed on this planet and in storms. Convection is almost completely nonoperational in earth’s atmosphere. Ignore meteorologists. They are brain-dead propagandists–scientifically incompetent.
Trust me, I am the #1 expert on atmospheric flow and storms. Meteorologists are just pretenders whose only goal is to overwhelm you with vague, meaningless rhetoric.
James McGinn / Solving Tornadoes
What You Never Suspected About Water in the Atmosphere
https://www.thunderbolts.info/forum/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=16615
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Alan Thorpe
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People seem to disagree strongly with you in the link you provided. What about the theory of a cold front? This is warm air rising over cold air and the moisture in the warm air condensing as it rises, bringing rain.
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James McGinn
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Alan:
People seem to disagree strongly with you in the link you provided.
JMcG:
The evidence agrees with me.
Alan:
What about the theory of a cold front? This is warm air rising over cold air and the moisture in the warm air condensing as it rises, bringing rain.
JMcG:
LOL. This isn’t a theory. Meteorologists don’t do theory. They just make conversational conjectures based on vague notions that they’ve never measured or tested.
Remember, meteorology is not a real science. It is not empirical. It is conversational. They are story tellers, artists. They are not scientists. They don’t measure or test any of this.
My model explains the physics of HEAVIER warm, moist air rising, cooling (due to lower pressure) and causing rain. I already explained this to you in the previous post. Read it again. Vortices connected to the greater jet stream cause low pressure above and this causes uplift of HEAVIER moist air to rise and cool as its pressure drops.
Vortices grow into flat boundaries between moist air and dry air. Sometimes, when the boundary extends all the way to the ground the vortices will grow down along the boundary to the ground, causing a tornado.
Convection is a dull-witted model that fails to explain the existence of vortices. Convection models of storms and atmospheric flow appeal to the lowest common denominator of brain-dead science consumers. People believe it because people are generally stupid and gullible and will believe anything that doesn’t make them think.
Besides, one has to about be retarded to believe that warm air rising will cause the high energy, gusty cold winds of storms. The fact that this absurd notion is so widely believed shows how plainly gullible and dumb is the public.
It’s Not What You Know That Will Hurt You . . .
https://www.thunderbolts.info/forum/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=16318
James McGinn / Solving Tornadoes
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