A fatal flaw in global warming science

Written by Edwin Berry on September 13, 2018. Posted in Current News

BUSTED: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) simply assumes nature treats human-produced and nature-produced carbon dioxide differently. This assumption is wrong because it violates the Equivalence Principle.

IPCC’s basic assumption infects climate models. IPCC’s Bern model, a 7-parameter curvefit to climate model output, predicts human carbon dioxide stays in the atmosphere for a long time, some of it forever. That conclusion is a result of IPCC’s basic assumption and it is wrong.

Applying the Equivalence Principle, the Bern model predicts natural emissions will cause a runaway carbon dioxide level that contradicts data. Therefore, IPCC climate models are wrong.

IPCC’s model cannot simulate the carbon-14 data.

A Model, derived from the continuity equation with outflow proportional to level, accurately simulates the carbon-14 data with no arbitrary curve-fitting parameters.

The Model shows constant carbon dioxide emissions, human or natural, do not add more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Rather their inflows set equilibrium levels for atmospheric carbon dioxide.

Using IPCC data, the Model shows present human emissions increase the level by 18 ppm and present natural emissions increase the level by 392 ppm to produce today’s total level of 410 ppm.

Any climate change caused by increased CO2 is 96 percent from natural CO2 and only 4 percent from human CO2. The effect of human emissions is the same as if natural emissions had increased by the same amount and human emissions had remained zero.

The critical scientific questions about climate change are about cause-and-effect:
1. How much do human emissions increase atmospheric carbon dioxide?
2. How much does increased atmospheric carbon dioxide change climate?

This paper focuses on the first question.

Full paper available at: https://edberry.com/blog/climate-physics/agw-hypothesis/preprint-a-fatal-flaw-in-global-warming-science/

Conclusions

• PCC’s basic assumption, that nature treats human carbon dioxide emissions differently than it treats nature’s carbon dioxide emissions, is wrong because it violates the Equivalence Principle.

• IPCC’s claim, that human carbon dioxide emissions will linger in the atmosphere for hundreds of years and 15 percent will remain forever, is invalid.

• IPCC’s claim that human emissions have caused all the rise in the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere since 1750, is invalid.

• The Model has no arbitrary curve-fit parameters. Yet, it accurately simulates the carbon-14 data.

• The Model shows human emissions add only 18 ppm and nature adds 392 ppm to produce today’s 410 ppm level of carbon dioxide.

• If all human CO2 emissions were stopped, the level of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere would fall by only 18 ppm.

• The effect of human emissions is the same as if natural emissions had increased by the same amount and human emissions had remained zero.

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