Wartime Achilles’ Heel of CO2-driven Climate Change

Written by Seldon B. Graham, Jr.

New study of previously overlooked U.S. government records from World War Two of data of human emissions of industrial (war-time) carbon dioxide (CO2) casts further doubt on the ‘greenhouse gas’ theory promoted by climate alarmists.

article 1

Independent research by Seldon B. Graham Jr. analysed the known and vastly-increased output of industrial CO2 emissions during World War Two, as obtained via the U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”) to determine its impacts on climate. By comparing the data with the known levels of CO2 in the atmosphere it is shown there was neither any increase on global temperatures nor (surprisingly) any increase in measured atmospheric CO2 levels.

These findings are at odds with claims routinely made by alarmist academic climate experts who say more human emissions equals more ‘dangerous’ heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere leading to higher global temperatures.

That is what the mainstream theory of a supposed ‘enhanced’ greenhouse gas effect (GHE) due to raised emissions of industrial CO2 tells us. But no such outcome is detected for the entire wartime decade, according to NASA.

While, according the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) no data is evidenced to prove any increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide due the devastating global war.

 Atmospheric CO2 Since 1950

 Since 1950, carbon dioxide in the air has increased each year. Thus, the attention to anthropogenic climate change (ACC) has been focused on the period since 1950.  “Fossil fuel,” which is oil, natural gas and coal, has been the only source blamed.  Since 1950, the amount of carbon dioxide increase from all sources exceeded the amount of carbon dioxide absorption (“sinks”) on land and ocean—without exception.  

These annual results since 1950 can be deemed to be equivalent to the results of testing using the venerable and reliable Scientific Method.  The Scientific Method has four steps:

Step 1.  Observe a phenomenon.

Step 2.  Formulate an hypothesis to explain the phenomenon.

Step 3.  Use the hypothesis to predict.

Step 4.  Perform experimental tests of the prediction.

Reproducible test results must be obtained in Step 4.  If a test fails to obtain the prediction, the hypothesis is not valid.

Using the Scientific Method on ACC:

Step 1. Observe a phenomenon: 

Observe climate change.  

Step 2.  Formulate an hypothesis to explain the phenomenon: 

 (A) Increasing fossil fuel causes increasing carbon dioxide, provided all sources exceed all sinks; and

(B) Increasing carbon dioxide causes climate change.   

Step 3. Use the hypothesis to predict:

 Predict that the ACC hypothesis worked during WW2 the same as it has done after 1950. 

 Step 4. Perform tests of the prediction:  Questions to be answered:

 (1) Did fossil fuel burning increase during WW2?

(2) If so, did increasing fossil fuel use cause an increase in levels of carbon dioxide?

(3) Did all carbon dioxide sources exceed all carbon dioxide sinks as was the case annually after 1950?

(4) Did the hypothesis work during World War 2 the same as it has done after 1950?

Did fossil fuel use increase during WW2?  According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”), U.S. oil production increased 310 million barrels annually during the War.  

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS1&f=A

1941 – 1,404 million barrels of oil

1942 – 1,385     

1943 – 1,506     

1944 – 1,678    

1945 – 1,714

According to the EIA, U.S. natural gas production increased by 1,148 million cubic feet annually during WW2. 

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9050us2a.htm

1941 – 2,894 million cubic feet of natural gas

1942 –  3,146     

1943 –  3,516     

1944 –  3,815     

1945 –  4,042 

During the war U.S. coal production increased about 90 million short tons annually.  

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:US_coal_production.png

1941 Approximately 590 million short tons of coal

1945 – 680

There was a massive increase of fossil fuel burning in the U.S. during WW2. Foreign fossil fuel consumption also greatly increased during the war effort, but there are no reliable records available for those amounts. 

Yes, fossil fuel use increased during WW2. The next question is: Did increasing fossil fuel burning lead to increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide?      

According to data on a National Aeronautics and Space Administration website, there was no increase in carbon dioxide during World War 2.  In fact, there was no increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide during the entire decade.  

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/modelforce/ghgases/Fig1A.ext.txt   

1940 – 311.3 parts per million of carbon dioxide

1941 – 311.0 

1942 – 310.7

1943 –  310.5

1944 – 310.2

1945 –  310.3 

1946 –  310.3

1947 –  310.4

1948 –  310.5

1949 –  310.9

1950 –  311.3

Carbon dioxide flat-lined during the entire decade. This was confirmed by a graph on a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration website. No data could be found which indicated an increase in carbon dioxide. 

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/indicators/global-temp-and-co2-1880-2009.gif

No, carbon dioxide did not increase during WW2. 

The next question is: Did all carbon dioxide sources exceed all carbon dioxide sinks as was the case annually after 1950?

No, all carbon dioxide sinks were equal to all carbon dioxide sources each year during the decade.  It would be virtually impossible for this delicate balance to occur each year for an entire decade. 

The final question is:  Did the hypothesis work during WW2 the same as it has done after 1950?

No, the hypothesis did not work during WW2 the same as it has done after 1950. 

Even though fossil fuel burning increased during WW2, it did not cause atmospheric carbon dioxide to increase.  All carbon dioxide sources did not exceed all carbon dioxide sinks as was the case annually after 1950.  The hypothesis was not reproducible during WW2. 

For ‘hard’ scientists who rely on the scientific method then an hypothesis is not reproducible, it serves like a flashing red light to alarm us that the hypothesis is defective—that the hypothesis is not valid.

There is one thing which can be said of the World War 2 carbon dioxide anomaly.  Since it happened during World War 2, it can happen again at any time.  This compelling factual evidence should be sufficient reason to abandon any further reliance on the ACC hypothesis.  

“WW2CO2,” meaning World War 2 carbon dioxide, found to have flat-lined during the entire decade, is the formula for unconditional victory over the economic enemy of the United States, the ACC hypothesis. 

Seldon B. Graham, Jr.

(A World War 2 veteran) 

Comments (1)

  • Avatar

    Peter Champness

    |

    Nice,

    Britain, Germany and Russia also produced lots of CO2 during WW2. IS there any accounting of their contribution?

    How does the WW2 production of CO2 stack up against the 1950’s, when Co2 actually began to go up?

Comments are closed