Uncertainty: The Soul of Modeling, Probability and Statistics
Respected American professor of Statistics publishes important new book which calls for a complete and fundamental change in the philosophy and practice of probability and statistics. 
Author, Willam M Briggs is Adjunct Professor of Statistics at Cornell with MS in Atmospheric Physics, and Bachelors in Meteorology. In this easy-to-read volume Briggs unmasks the over-certainty that pervades so much government and corporate science.
The Big Gist
- All probability is conditional;
- Probability is not decision.
From those simple and proved truths flows these consequences:
- Probability cannot discern cause;
- Therefore no hypothesis test, by wee p-value or Bayes factor, should ever be used;
- Therefore parameters are of no interest to man or beast;
- Therefore verified probability models should be used in a predictive sense only;
- Therefore to understand cause and provide explanation we must look to nature, essence, and power.
Therefore buy the book and be the first on your block to come to a wondrous, penetrating understanding of probability & statistics. Out with the new and in with the old! The older, better, and true understanding of cause and probability, that is. Eschew mathematics for the sake of mathematics, flee ad hocery in all its forms and wiles, and put probability to its intended real use!
This includes you, too, computer scientists, with your big deep data neural net machine “learning” fuzzy algorithms which are all probability models by (admittedly) cuter and more precious names.
Chapter Abstracts
Preface
Click here: coming
Forward: Written by Steve Goldberg
Additional Material
I’ll have questions for homework, errata for the errors placed by my enemies post production, podcasts, and more.
You—Yes, You—Are Doing Probability & Statistics Wrong — WMBriggs Podcast.
Springer Official Site
Click here: Apparently you can buy individual chapters. Or an e-book.
Important student note: apparently many universities have a deal with Springer such that you can read the book on the universities’ library site. I haven’t found it at Cornell (where I have access) yet. Stay tuned here for future word.
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