Sea Level Rises: Fact or Fiction? North American Case Study

Written by PSI staff on December 15, 2016. Posted in Current News

Governments have been lying to us about sea level rises. So says Professor Albert Parker, a long term critic of fellow academics who try to link natural sea level rises to man-made global warming narrative. Professor Parker provides a telling analysis of United States government data, focusing on official numbers from New Hampshire, which demonstrates that sea levels are rising today no faster than they were during pre-industrial times.

Professor Parker writes:

The rising seas of climate change deception in North America

New Hampshire Sea Level Rise Narrative vs. Evidence

By Albert Parker

1. Recent alarmist claims in the biased media

The misguided and biased mainstream media¹ has recently reported that “A bipartisan legislative commission is urging coastal communities to act now to improve protection against flooding and storm surges in preparation for projected sea level rise. The Coastal Risks and Hazards Commission – comprised of lawmakers, coastal community officials, researchers and relevant state department officials – presented a new report at the State House Wednesday. It urges municipalities to adjust zoning ordinances to prevent new structures from being dangerously vulnerable to storms and high tides, as well as improve infrastructure to better protect against those threats. It also recommends existing structures be made more flood resilient and future state policies and legislation take current research on rising tides into account.

The report cites studies by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association that state New Hampshire’s sea levels are expected to rise 6 inches to 2 feet by 2050, and 1.6 to 6.6 feet by 2100.”

The headlines are apocalyptic without any sense of measure:

• “Action urged for sea-level rise on NH coast” ¹
• “Study: 7,000 Seacoast properties could be under water by 2100 yet NH keeps building” ²
• “Report: NH should prepare for rising seas” ³
• “Report calls on New Hampshire to prepare for rising seas” ⁴
• “Report: Seacoast should ‘act now’ as sea levels rise; tons of NH properties at risk” ⁵

As the first sign that the sea levels are accelerating following the anthropogenic carbon dioxide emission is still missing in every sea level measurement by tide gauges worldwide, there is no reason if not a perverse political agenda shared by the most part of the media to double the more and more unrealistic IPCC predictions of up to 1 meter sea level rise by 2100⁶ raising the bar to 2 meters sea level rise by 2100.

2. Details of the latest Sea-Level Rise narrative for New Hampshire

As usual the “bipartisan” commission⁷ is acting as a one party propaganda outlet, carefully censoring every work pointing out the lack of any proof the sea levels are rising fast and at an accelerating rate in response to the anthropogenic carbon dioxide emission. The figure 2 of the report reproduced below should have immediately prompted a not completely lobotomized reader to ask why we should believe the narrative of a sharp departure since 1990 of sea level rise from their measured pattern 1900-1990 as nothing weird happened so far 1990 to 2016.

“Forecasting rates of global greenhouse gas emissions is challenging, but research shows that current greenhouse gas concentrations and current or accelerated emissions rates will continue to influence sea levels in the future. Planning for a 100-year flood now can also prepare us for mid-century sea-level rise.”  “Figure 2 shows the projected sea-level rise for the years 2050 and 2100 under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios as reported in the National Climate Assessment published in 2014. These scenarios assume intermediate-low greenhouse gas emissions, intermediate-high emissions, and the highest emissions conceivable.”

“Based on local tide gauge data, sea levels in New Hampshire have been rising by an average of 0.7 inches per decade since 1900. The rate of sea-level rise has increased to approximately 1.3 inches per decade since 1993. Using 1992 sea levels as a baseline, New Hampshire sea levels are expected to rise between 0.6 and 2.0 feet by 2050 and between 1.6 and 6.6 feet by 2100.”

The report correctly points out as the rate of rise up to present has been roughly 0.7 inches per decade=1.778 mm/year. However, they do not notice that the rate of rise has been fairly constant since the early 1900s. In particular, since 1990, the narrative predicts a sharp increase of sea level rise that is simply not in the measurements after 25 years.

Surprisingly, they want us to believe that by 2050 the lower and upper sea level rise will be 0.6 feet=182.88 mm and 2.0 feet = 609.6 mm, while by 2100 the lower and upper sea level rise will be 1.6 feet = 487.68 mm and 6.6 feet by 2100 = 2011.68 mm.

As show in the next section, if the sea levels haven’t started yet to accelerate, very likely the narrative based on the assumptions that the sea level rise is driven by the anthropogenic carbon dioxide emission is wrong, and we should not expect over the rest of the 21^st century a different behavior from what has been experienced over the 20^th century and the first 15 years of the 21^st century^{8, 9-20}.

1. Sea-Level Rise experimental evidence

As there are many tide gauges measuring the sea levels across the world and the United States, there is no reason why the narrative should not be verified by measurements.

We may consider tide gauge results⁸ for the Continental United States, the Atlantic and the Pacific coasts. Sea level rate of rise is the slope of the linear fitting curve of the monthly average mean sea levels, sea level acceleration is twice the second order coefficient of the parabolic fitting (average acceleration) or the time variation of the linear mean sea level trends calculated in overlapping increments of 50 or 60 years, or the time variation of the linear mean sea level trends calculated with all the data.

• Continental United States, Atlantic and Pacific coasts

• East Coast
  • Average +3.34 mm/year
  • Minimum +1.76 mm/year
  • Maximum 5.93 mm/year
• West Coast (including Alaska)
  • Average -1.23 mm/year (minus = sea level fall)
  • Minimum -17.59 mm/year
  • Maximum +4.6 mm/year

The sea level acceleration is negligible along the East and the West Coast (locally very small positive and very small negative, globally zero). Why the sea level rise more along the East Coast and less along the West Coast, actually is decreasing on average along the West coast, this is simply because of the different subsidence of the land and the different phasing of multi-decadal oscillations^9-20.

• New Hampshire

“The New Hampshire seacoast encompasses only 13 miles. A day’s walk” ^21. To find proper tide gauge records, is thus necessary to move to nearby states, Massachusetts and Maine.

• Boston (Massachusetts)
  • +2.79 mm/year
• Seavey Island (Maine)
  • +1.76 mm/year
• Portland (Maine)
  • +1.87 mm/year

The Sea level acceleration about New Hampshire (nearby tide gauges of Massachusetts and Maine) is negligible.

“Linear mean sea level trends were calculated in overlapping 50-year increments for stations with sufficient historical data. The variability of each 50-year trend, with 95{154653b9ea5f83bbbf00f55de12e21cba2da5b4b158a426ee0e27ae0c1b44117} confidence interval, is plotted against the mid-year of each 50-year period. The solid horizontal line represents the linear mean sea level trend using the entire period of record.”

“As more data are collected at water level stations, the linear mean sea level trends can be recalculated each year. The figure compares linear mean sea level trends and 95{154653b9ea5f83bbbf00f55de12e21cba2da5b4b158a426ee0e27ae0c1b44117} confidence intervals calculated from the beginning of the station record to recent years. The values do not indicate the trend in each year, but the trend of the entire data period up to that year.”

“The mean sea level trend is 1.76 millimeters/year with a 95{154653b9ea5f83bbbf00f55de12e21cba2da5b4b158a426ee0e27ae0c1b44117} confidence interval of +/- 0.30 mm/yr based on monthly mean sea level data from 1926 to 2001 which is equivalent to a change of 0.58 feet in 100 years.”

4. Forecasted values vs. the narrative

We may then compare forecast based on measurements and narrative values. The narrative values are increasingly unrealistic. Below are the forecasted values of sea level rise based on measurements vs. lower and upper bounds of the narrative:

1. Conclusions

In New Hampshire the sea levels are rising at a monotonously consistent rate – anything but dramatic let alone with any human signal. There is no reason anyone willing to analyze data objectively should believe the tired old alarmist narrative. We look forward to an increase of climate realism now that certain western nations are electing leaders who are unpersuaded by alarmist junk science.

******

Dr Albert Parker is Adjunct Associate Professor, James Cook University (formerly the University of Ballarat) and has affiliations with Missouri University of Science and Technology, formerly known as University of Missouri-Rolla.

References

1. http://www.seacoastonline.com/news/20161130/action-urged-for-sea-level-rise-on-nh-coast
2. http://www.unionleader.com/article/20161130/NEWS11/161139963
3. http://www.eagletribune.com/news/new_hampshire/report-nh-should-prepare-for-rising-seas/article_c81ac2bf-2e71-5f4c-af9d-94d910a13311.html
4. https://www.boston.com/news/local-news/2016/11/30/report-calls-on-new-hampshire-to-prepare-for-rising-seas
5. http://www.nh1.com/news/report-seacoast-should-act-now-as-sea-levels-rise-tons-of-nh-properties-at-risk/
6. https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full.pdf
7. http://www.nhcrhc.org/wp-content/uploads/2016-CRHC-final-report.pdf
8. https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends
9. Parker, Oscillations of sea level rise along the Atlantic coast of North America north of Cape Hatteras, Natural Hazards Volume 65, Issue 1, 2013, Pages 991-997. DOI: 10.1007/s11069-012-0354-7.
10. Parker, SEA LEVEL TRENDS AT LOCATIONS OF THE UNITED STATES WITH MORE THAN 100 YEARS OF RECORDING, Natural Hazards, Volume 65, Issue 1, 2013, Pages 1011-1021. DOI: 10.1007/s11069-012-0400-5.
11. Parker, M. Saad Saleem and M. Lawson, Sea-Level Trend Analysis for Coastal Management, Ocean & Coastal Management, Volume 73, March 2013, Pages 63–81. 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2012.12.005.
12. Parker, The non-linear, naturally oscillating pattern of sea-levels in the Chesapeake Bay, East Coast, USA, Nonlinear Engineering. Volume 2, Issue 1-2, Pages 1–10, ISSN (Online) 2192-8010, ISSN (Print) 2192-8029, DOI: 10.1515/nleng-2013-0008, May 2013. www.degruyter.com/view/j/nleng.2013.2.issue-1-2/nleng-2013-0008/nleng-2013-0008.xml?format=INT
13. Parker, COMPARISON OF LATEST US AND GLOBAL TIDE GAUGE RESULTS WITH THE IPCC AR4  SEA LEVEL  PROJECTIONS: The acceleration free US and world average tide gauges, Environmental Science: An Indian Journal, Vol. 8, Issue 7, 2013. PAGES: 286-291. UPDI: www.updi.info/09747451.8/245285 www.tsijournals.com/tsijournals/Journals/Environmental{154653b9ea5f83bbbf00f55de12e21cba2da5b4b158a426ee0e27ae0c1b44117}20Science-An{154653b9ea5f83bbbf00f55de12e21cba2da5b4b158a426ee0e27ae0c1b44117}20Indian{154653b9ea5f83bbbf00f55de12e21cba2da5b4b158a426ee0e27ae0c1b44117}20Journal/vol_8_issue-7/Comparison{154653b9ea5f83bbbf00f55de12e21cba2da5b4b158a426ee0e27ae0c1b44117}20of{154653b9ea5f83bbbf00f55de12e21cba2da5b4b158a426ee0e27ae0c1b44117}20latest{154653b9ea5f83bbbf00f55de12e21cba2da5b4b158a426ee0e27ae0c1b44117}20US{154653b9ea5f83bbbf00f55de12e21cba2da5b4b158a426ee0e27ae0c1b44117}20and{154653b9ea5f83bbbf00f55de12e21cba2da5b4b158a426ee0e27ae0c1b44117}20global{154653b9ea5f83bbbf00f55de12e21cba2da5b4b158a426ee0e27ae0c1b44117}20tide.html
14. Parker, Apparent hot and cold spots of acceleration along the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of the United States, Nonlinear Engineering. Volume 3, Issue 1, Pages 51–56, ISSN (Online) 2192-8010, ISSN (Print) 2192-8029, DOI: 10.1515/nleng-2013-0012, August 2013. www.degruyter.com/view/j/nleng-2013-0012/nleng-2013-0012.xml
15. Parker and C.D. Ollier, Cherries, apples and sea levels: Discussion of Neil J. White et al., Australian sea levels -Trends, regional variability and influencing factors, Earth-Science Reviews 136 (2014) 155-174, Environmental Science: An Indian Journal, Volume 10, issue 6, 2015, Pages 191-195. ESAIJ_2936. UPDI: www.updi.info/09747451.10/645624. www.publicationhosting.org/toc/article.php?id=5972
16. Parker, The actual measurements at the tide gauges do not support strongly accelerating twentieth-century sea-level rise reconstructions, Nonlinear Engineering. Volume 5, Issue 1, Pages 45–71, ISSN (Online) 2192-8029, ISSN (Print) 2192-8010, DOI: 10.1515/nleng-2015-0006, March 2016.

www.degruyter.com/view/j/nleng.ahead-of-print/nleng-2015-0006/nleng-2015-0006.xml

17. Parker, Sea level rises: arguing the nanometre to defocus from the missed meter, Environmental Science: An Indian Journal. Volume 12 Issue 1 Year: 2016 Pages: 22-29. ESAIJ_4335.

www.tsijournals.com/toc/article.php?id=9546

tsijournals.com/upload/ESAIJ_4335/Ereprint_ESAIJ_4335.pdf

18. Parker and C.D. Ollier, COASTAL PLANNING SHOULD BE BASED ON PROVEN SEA LEVEL DATA, Ocean and Coastal Management, 2016, Volume 124, May 2016, Pages 1–9. Doi: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2016.02.005.
19. Parker, Discussion of Coastal Planning Should Be Based on Proven Sea-Level Data, American Journal of Geophysics, Geochemistry and Geosystems, Vol.2, No.1, Feb. 2016, Pub. Date: Jun. 1, 2016. www.aiscience.org/journal/paperInfo/aj3g?paperId=2782
20. Parker, The Sea Levels are Now Reducing in the “Hotspots of Acceleration” of Washington and New York, Journal of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Vol.1, No.1, Sep. 2016, Pages: 1-9, Pub. Date: Jul. 21, 2016.

http://www.aiscience.org/journal/paperInfo/jeas?paperId=3000

21. https://newengland.com/yankee-magazine/travel/new-hampshire/seacoast/short-coast-long-story/

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