If President-elect Donald Trump is looking for places to cut costs, he might want to take a look at the National Weather Service’s seasonal forecasting unit.
Yesterday at the Daily Update over at Weatherbell Analytics, veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi looked at the season forecasts, generated by billion dollar super-computers, recently put out by NCEP. Turns out they were totally wrong. You have to pity the poor persons who placed their bets on them.
The first example is the forecast for North America made by NCEP in November for December:
Fortunately, the Titanic only sunk once because engineers and navigators did not continue to make the same mistakes over and over.
But “experts” and climate models provide a never-ending loop of sinking and re-floating of a wide assortment of climate change predictions, forecasts and scenarios. The weather/climate researchers seem unable to embrace the humility and reality that their computer simulation predictions rarely stay afloat for any length of time before being sent down to deep and cold watery graves.
In order to understand the workings of the thought-police there is no better place to start than with the Trial of Galileo.
It is well worthwhile taking twenty minutes or so to read the story of Galileo. Here was a brilliant scientist and mathematician, considered by many to be the founder of modern Physics, who feared for his life, because he accepted the theory of Copernicus that the Earth was not the centre of the universe and stayed still, but that the Earth revolved upon its own axis as it travelled round the Sun.
Since nobody today has any qualms about accepting such a notion it is difficult to believe that in 1597 Galileo wrote to Johannes Kepler to say that he dared not bring into the open his support for the Copernican theory. Why? Because the Catholic Church considered that it was against Holy Writ and the very idea that the Earth was not still and the centre of the Universe was considered absurd.
Scientists say they have identified a remarkable new feature in Earth’s molten outer core.They describe it as a kind of “jet stream” – a fast-flowing river of liquid iron that is surging westwards under Alaska and Siberia.
The moving mass of metal has been inferred from measurements made by Europe’s Swarm satellites. This trio of spacecraft are currently mapping Earth’s magnetic field to try to understand its fundamental workings. The scientists say the jet is the best explanation for the patches of concentrated field strength that the satellites observe in the northern hemisphere.
“This jet of liquid iron is moving at about fifty kilometres per year,” explained Dr Chris Finlay from the National Space Institute at the Technical University of Denmark (DTU Space).
It may be hard to believe that computer programming was once considered “woman’s work.” Today women are vastly underrepresented in science and technology-based industries. The number of women in STEM related subjects is so low that toy companies are even creating engineering sets specifically targeted for young girls.
So for those of us who’ve grown up in this reality, it’s hard to imagine a time or place where female programmers were the only people considered appropriate for the job.
Scientists from NASA and three universities have presented new discoveries about the way heat and energy move and manifest in the ionosphere, a region of Earth’s atmosphere that reacts to changes from both space above and Earth below.
Far above Earth’s surface, within the tenuous upper atmosphere, is a sea of particles that have been split into positive and negative ions by the sun’s harsh ultraviolet radiation. Called the ionosphere, this is Earth’s interface to space, the area where Earth’s neutral atmosphere and terrestrial weather give way to the space environment that dominates most of the rest of the universe – an environment that hosts charged particles and a complex system of electric and magnetic fields.
Written by Josefino C. Comiso, Robert A. Gersten et al.
Scientists from NASA Goddard Space Flight Center found that the amount of sea ice in the Antarctic is increasing contrary to the theory of man-made global warming. American Meteorological Society confirms findings in published study.
Abstract: The Antarctic sea ice extent has been slowly increasing contrary to expected trends due to global warming and results from coupled climate models. After a record high extent in 2012 the extent was even higher in 2014 when the magnitude exceeded 20×106 km2 for the first time during the satellite era.
The positive trend is confirmed with a newly reprocessed sea ice data that addressed inconsistency issues in the time series. The variability in sea ice extent and ice area was studied alongside surface ice temperature for the 34-year period starting 1981 and the result of the analysis show a strong correlation of -0.94 during the growth season and -0.86 during the melt season.
The correlation coefficients are even stronger with a one-month lag in surface temperature at -0.96 during the growth season and -0.98 during the melt season suggesting that the trend in sea ice cover is strongly influenced by the trend in surface temperature. The correlation with atmospheric circulation as represented by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index appears to be relatively weak. A case study comparing the record high in 2014 with a relatively low ice extent in 2015 also shows strong sensitivity to changes in surface temperature.
The results suggest that the positive trend is a consequence of the spatial variability of global trends in surface temperature and that the ability of current climate models to forecast sea ice trend can be improved through better performance in reproducing observed surface temperatures in the Antarctic region.
Cells in the amniotic fluid that surrounds a developing baby can revive ageing and weak bones, say UK scientists.
The discovery could help babies with genetic diseases, elderly people and even astronauts, they say. The findings in mice, published in Scientific Reports, showed cells in the fluid strengthened bone and cut fractures by 80%. Human clinical trials are planned within the next two years.
The amniotic fluid protects the baby and helps it develop inside the mother’s womb. It also contains stem cells that are the building blocks of other tissues.
The researchers collected the amniotic stem cells from material left over from screening tests during pregnancy or collected immediately before birth.
The team at the Institute of Child Health – a collaboration of Great Ormond Street Hospital and University College London – injected the cells into diseased mice. The animals had brittle bone disease or osteogenesis imperfecta.
In people, the condition affects around one in every 25,000 births and can be fatal, with babies born with multiple fractures. Even those who survive face up to 15 bone fractures a year, brittle teeth, impaired hearing and growth problems.
Two fundamental tenets of the anthropogenic global warming narrative are (1) the globe is warming (i.e., it’s not just regional warming), and (2) the warming that has occurred since 1950 can be characterized as remarkable, unnatural, and largely unprecedented. In other words, today’s climate is substantially and alarmingly different than what it has been in the past….because the human impact has been profound.
Well, maybe. Scientists are increasingly finding that the two fundamental points cited above may not be supported by the evidence.
WesternSiberia is currently stuck in a mini Ice Age as temperatures plummeted to nearly -80 degrees Fahrenheit, breaking all previous cold records. And meteorologists say that even icier weather is coming. Temps tumbled to -62 degrees Celsius (-79.6°F) at the Bolshoe Olkhovskoe oilfield in the Khanti-Mansi region this week. And the Kazym village in the Beloyarsky district showed a biting -58 degrees C (-72.4°F).
In the province of Nadym, the bone-shattering cold pushed past the -50 degrees C (-58°F) mark, forcing schools to shut down. In provinces like Yakutia, schools stayed open despite a bone-chilling -52 degrees C (-61.6°F). While these arctic temperatures are commonplace in eastern Siberia, it rarely gets this frigid in the west.
Despite below-average temperatures breaking records across the Northern Hemisphere, the Washington Post is warning readers the North Pole may warm up 40-50 degrees on Thursday, which they blame for Arctic sea ice loss. Except the data doesn’t back up the claim. The Danish Meteorological Institute, which tracks Arctic sea ice, shows 2016 being similar to 2014 and 2015.
The anomalous weather event is a consequence of an always shifting jet stream, and not #Climate Change, which alarmists repeatedly claim is long-term weather over many years. Even 19 years of no statistical warming wasn’t long enough for NASA and NOAA to declare the great global warming scare was over. But a day of warming from a naturally occurring event is a beacon of impending doom.
I looked it up – I was curious. How many times does a normal healthy human being breathe in and breathe out in just one minute? Well, Google tells me that we exhale (that means breathe out for the scientifically illiterate friends of mine on Facebook) some fifteen to twenty times in one minute.
Let us take the lower number. What is 15 x 60? It equals 900 exhalations in every hour! Let us now multiply 900 by 24 to get the number of breaths in 24 hours. That comes to 21,600 exhalations of Carbon Dioxide at 40,000 parts per million in one single day by one average person.
The total world population is presently reckoned to be 7.4 billion. And rising! You do the maths for that!
The myth that hydraulic fracturing, commonly called “fracking,” of oil and natural gas is responsible for the widespread, systemic contamination of groundwater (the stuff you drink) is one that is proving tremendously hard to kill. Like a hoard of Birkenstock-and-white-sock-wearing terminators—and here I paraphrase the film—proponents of fracking bans can’t be bargained with, can’t be reasoned with, can’t feel pity or remorse or fear, and they absolutely will not stop, ever, until fracking is dead.
No matter how many blows they get dealt, they keep on coming. No matter what the scientific literature says, they will not stray from their mission.