New Papers Show Solar Activity Impacts ENSO, Refuting Claims Sun Has Little Impact On Climate
Solar activity impacts Pacific weather
By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(German text translated/edited by P Gosselin)
In a joint US-German study, seven scientists recently tried to discredit the sun’s impact on climate.
On April 19, 2017, Guoyong Wen and colleagues published a modeling study in the Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate, which suggested a maximum solar-dependent share of 0.1°C on the temperature development over the past 400 years. Here the scientists relied on the old, well-known trick of using the Little Ice Age as the starting point.
However, a really convincing test would be required including the Medieval Warm Period, a time when temperatures were similar to those of today. The atmospheric CO2 concentration was low while solar activity was high. Once again a good opportunity got passed up.
Ignored here were the strong paleo-climatological indicators that the sun had significant involvement on the climate. At No Tricks Zone, Kenneth Richard presented an entire series of new studies. In September 2016, Andy May presented a nice overview of the thousand-year cycles over at WUWT.
Yet another interesting paper by Kovalenko & Zherebtsov, appeared in November 2014 at Springer-Journal ‘Atmospheric and Oceanic Optics‘:
Influence of solar activity on the climate change
We discuss problems which are of main importance for understanding the nature of climate changes in the 20th century and basic physical processes responsible for these changes. A possible role of solar activity in the Earth’s climate changes in the past and future is considered. As shown, physical mechanisms which can provide for the solar variability effect on the weather and climate are reduced to the control of the energy flux from the Earth to space. A special emphasis is given to the solar activity effect on climatic characteristics of the troposphere through the atmospheric electricity. We consider peculiarities of the response of thermal and dynamic regimes of the World Ocean and atmosphere to solar activity changes and processes in the atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere. We also show and discuss results of the analysis of regularities and peculiarities of the troposphere and the ocean surface temperature response to both isolated heliogeophysical disturbances and long-term changes in solar and geomagnetic activity.”
El Nino appears irregularly every 2-7 years. In between, there are the cooling La Nina phases. El Nino and La Nina are Pacific weather phenomena that make up in part the so-called ENSO, which is an indicator of the Pacific climate condition. A team of scientists led by Danish Hassan presented calculations in a paper in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics in January 2016. The paper showed a solar influence on the ENSO, and thus a related climate-parameter:
Sunspots and ENSO relationship using Markov method
The various techniques have been used to confer the existence of significant relations between the number of Sunspots and different terrestrial climate parameters such as rainfall, temperature, dewdrops, aerosol and ENSO etc. Improved understanding and modelling of Sunspots variations can explore the information about the related variables. This study uses a Markov chain method to find the relations between monthly Sunspots and ENSO data of two epochs (1996–2009 and 1950–2014). Corresponding transition matrices of both data sets appear similar and it is qualitatively evaluated by high values of 2-dimensional correlation found between transition matrices of ENSO and Sunspots. The associated transition diagrams show that each state communicates with the others. The presence of stronger self-communication (between same states) confirms periodic behavior among the states. Moreover, closeness found in the expected number of visits from one state to the other show the existence of a possible relation between Sunspots and ENSO data. Moreover, perfect validation of dependency and stationary tests endorses the applicability of the Markov chain analyses on Sunspots and ENSO data. This shows that a significant relation between Sunspots and ENSO data exists. Improved understanding and modelling of Sunspots variations can help to explore the information about the related variables. This study can be useful to explore the influence of ENSO-related local climatic variability.”
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