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New paper finds strong evidence the Sun has controlled climate over the past 11,000 years, not CO2

Written by hockeyschtick.blogspot.com.au

A paper published today in Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics finds a “strong and stable correlation” between the millennial variations in sunspots and the temperature in Antarctica over the past 11,000 years. In stark contrast, the authors find no strong or stable correlation between temperature and CO2 over that same period. solar rays

The authors correlated reconstructed CO2 levels, sunspots, and temperatures from ice-core data from Vostok Antarctica and find

“We find that the variations of SSN [sunspot number] and T  [temperature] have some common periodicities, such as the 208 year (yr), 521 yr, and ~1000 yr cycles. The correlations between SSN and T are strong for some intermittent periodicities. However, the wavelet analysis demonstrates that the relative phase relations between them usually do not hold stable except for the millennium-cycle component. The millennial variation of SSN leads that of T by 30–40 years, and the anti-phase relation between them keeps stable nearly over the whole 11,000 years of the past. As a contrast, the correlations between CO2 and T are neither strong nor stable.”

Thus, the well known ~1000 year climate cycle responsible for the Holocene Climate Optimum 6000 to 4000 years ago, the Egyptian warm period ~4000 years ago, the Minoan warm period ~3000 years ago, the Roman warm period ~2000 years ago, the Medieval warm period ~1000 years ago, and the current warm period at present all roughly fall in this same 1000 year sequence of increased solar activity associated with warm periods.
solar graph 1
The authors find temperature changes lag solar activity changes by ~40 years, which is likely due to the huge heat capacity and inertia of the oceans. Warming proponents attempt to dismiss the Sun’s role in climate change by claiming 20th century solar activity peaked at around 1960 and somewhat declined from 1960 levels to the end of the 20th century (and have continued to decline in the 21st century right along with the 18+ year “pause” of global warming).
solar graph 2

Abstract

The solar impact on the Earth’s climate change is a long topic with intense debates. Based on the reconstructed data of solar sunspot number (SSN), the local temperature in Vostok (T), and the atmospheric CO2 concentration data of Dome Concordia, we investigate the periodicities of solar activity, the atmospheric CO2 and local temperature in the inland Antarctica as well as their correlations during the past 11,000 years before AD 1895. We find that the variations of SSN and T have some common periodicities, such as the 208 year (yr), 521 yr, and ~1000 yr cycles. The correlations between SSN and T are strong for some intermittent periodicities. However, the wavelet analysis demonstrates that the relative phase relations between them usually do not hold stable except for the millennium-cycle component. The millennial variation of SSN leads that of T by 30–40 years, and the anti-phase relation between them keeps stable nearly over the whole 11,000 years of the past. As a contrast, the correlations between CO2 and T are neither strong nor stable. These results indicate that solar activity might have potential influences on the long-term change of Vostok’s local climate during the past 11,000 years before modern industry.
 

Firstly, the assumption that solar activity peaked in 1960 and declined since is false, since it is necessary to determine the accumulated solar energy over multiple solar cycles, which is the accumulated departure from the average number of sunspots over the entire period, which I call the “sunspot integral.” The sunspot integral is plotted in blue and shows remarkable correction with global temperatures plotted in red below. Correlating sunspot and temperature data with and without CO2, we find the sunspot integral explains 95% of temperature change over the past 400 years, and that CO2 had no significant influence (also here).
 
Secondly, this paper finds strong evidence of a 30-40 year lag between solar activity and temperature response. So what happened ~40 years after the 1960 peak in sunspot activity? Why that just so happens to be when satellite measurements of global temperature peaked with the 1998 El Nino [which is also driven by solar activity], followed by the “pause” and cooling since.
 
We have thus shown
  • Strong correlation between solar activity and climate over the past 11,000 years of the Holocene
  • Strong lack of correlation between CO2 and climate over the past 11,000 years of the Holocene
  • Solar activity explains all 6 well-known warming periods that have occurred during the Holocene, including the current warm period
  • The 20th century peak in sunspot activity is associated with a 40 year lag in the peak global temperature
What more proof do you need that it’s the Sun!
 

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Comments (7)

  • Avatar

    Thorb

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    [b]Correlation is not Causation[/b]

    and … What 18+ year pause in Global Warming ? The sun definitely has an effect on global temperature but now … so do we … don’t give idiots an excuse to stop working on making the environment better.

    Reply

  • Avatar

    Dr. Dusk

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    [quote name=”Tom Steele”]So this is not scientific evidence that the climate and earth system is unharmed by CO2. The number of pubs in England show a positive correlation with the incidence of churches. We do not go around blaming alcoholism on the churches…. “It’s the preachers that cause the drinkers”. Nor do we do the opposite “Pubs strong correlation linked to religious leanings of population.”
    Nor can the conclusion be “burn up all the fossil carbon you can find, scientific evidence shows it’s the completely rational thing to do. Let’s get on with the important business of taking care of the planet, each other and sharing fairly shall we?[/quote]

    In place of “preachers” put “CO2”, in place of “drinkers” put “warming”, in place of “Pubs” put “Climate change”, in place of “religious leanings” put “fossil fuel use”, and yes, you DO say such things.

    Reply

  • Avatar

    Tom Steele

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    So this is not scientific evidence that the climate and earth system is unharmed by CO2. The number of pubs in England show a positive correlation with the incidence of churches. We do not go around blaming alcoholism on the churches…. “It’s the preachers that cause the drinkers”. Nor do we do the opposite “Pubs strong correlation linked to religious leanings of population.”
    Nor can the conclusion be “burn up all the fossil carbon you can find, scientific evidence shows it’s the completely rational thing to do. Let’s get on with the important business of taking care of the planet, each other and sharing fairly shall we?

    Reply

  • Avatar

    CleanEnergyPundit

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    Can’t be any other way. An elementary order-of-magnitude calculation – relying on the Zeroth Law of Thermodynamics – shows that, even when allowing the IPCC calculation of man-mad global warming by 2100 reputedly caused by CO2, it’s so trivial when compared to solar input variability alone, as to be totally irrelevant to ‘climate’: http://cleanenergypundit.blogs

    Reply

  • Avatar

    Denis Ables

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    This more or less agrees with Singer & Avery’s book. “Unstoppable Global Warming: every 1500 years”

    Reply

  • Avatar

    John A Marshall

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    We all knew it was the sun, well the sceptics anyway. Yes Doug, there must be some cosmic influence, we have already gone down that line with more to discover.

    Reply

  • Avatar

    .Doug..C

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    As I pointed out well over three years ago, there is compelling correlation between climate and the inverted plot of the scalar sum of the angular momentum of the Sun and all the planets. This paper outlines the same reasons that I described back then, relating to magnetic fields and cosmic rays.

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