New paper: climate change & CO2 levels function of lagged solar activity
Written by hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.uk
A new paper under open review for Earth System Dynamics finds Holocene climate change can be explained on the basis of lagged responses to changes of solar activity. According to the author,
This paper analyzes the lagged responses of the Earth’s climate system, as part of cosmic-solar-terrestrial processes. Firstly, we analyze and model the lagged responses of the Earth’s climate system, previously detected for geological and orbital scale processes, with simple non-linear functions, and we estimate a correspondent lag of ~1600-yr for the recently detected ~9500-yr scale solar recurrent patterns.
Secondly, a recurrent and lagged linear influence of solar variation on volcanic activity and carbon dioxide (CO2) has been assessed for the last millennia, and extrapolated for future centuries and millennia. As a consequence we found that, on one side, the recent CO2 increase can be considered as a lagged response to solar activity, and, on the other side, the continental tropical climate signal during late Holocene can be considered as a sum of three lagged responses to solar activity, through direct, and indirect (volcanic and CO2), influences with different lags of around 40, 800 and 1600 years.
Note the ~1600 year lag of response to solar activity is essentially the same as the well-known ~1500 year “never-ending climate cycle” identified by numerous peer-reviewed, published papers.
Note also the paper explains CO2 levels on the basis of a lagged function of solar activity, due to variations in solar heating of the oceans, and ocean in-gassing and out-gassing of CO2, not as a result of the ~4% CO2 contribution from mankind.
The paper shows the (noisy) 1600-year climate cycle in the ice core 10Be proxy of solar activity of the past 1800 years peaked in the 1900’s. The orange lines are modeled on the basis of a function of three lagged compenents of solar activity cycles and is currently on a downswing until ~2100, indicating potentially cooler Earth temperatures ahead.
Received: 18 Aug 2016 – Accepted: 31 Aug 2016 – Published: 07 Sep 2016