Dr Judith Curry and Climate Science’s Uncertainty Monster

Written by Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

On her web site, Climate Etc., Judith Curry (pictured) posted her notes on her latest presentation of what she calls the Uncertainty Monster. dr judith curry

The presentation was a keynote talk at the “2nd International Workshop on Econometric Applications in Climatology.” Linked in the post are the slides in her presentation, which are very useful in understanding the presentation. 
 
Curry’s effort attempts to articulate the difference, in her view, between what we know and what we do not know about climate science. Her views began after Climategate, and have changed over the past few years. 
 
Confusion and ambiguity are common in the public and the climate community, and occur because all too often members of the community fail to distinguish between knowledge and ignorance; objectivity and subjectivity; facts and values; prediction and speculation; and science and policy. 
 
In her view, the science as reported by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has institutionalized overconfidence. The overconfidence has resulted in disagreements based on: insufficient observational evidence; disagreement about the value of different classes of evidence (e.g. models); disagreement about the appropriate logical framework for linking and assessing the evidence; assessments of areas of ambiguity and ignorance; and belief polarization as a result of politicization of the science. 
 
To this list, SEPP would add that the IPCC and its parent organization, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), have failed make it explicitly clear in every publication that their mission is not to understand all the influences on climate change, but purely the human one, thus ignoring major natural influences on climate change.
 
Curry goes on to describe what she calls the UNFCCC/ICCC ideology: 
1. Anthropogenic [human-caused] climate change is real 
2. Anthropogenic climate change is dangerous 
3. Action is needed to prevent dangerous climate change
4. Deniers are attacking climate science and scientists 
5. Deniers and fossil fuel industry are delaying UNFCCC CO2 stabilization policies
 
Curry discusses major issues regarding the treatment of uncertainty, including that the often used Bayesian statistical methods, which have difficulty in dealing with true uncertainty, are subjective, and may lead to biased results.
 
She suggests Bayesian methods may be appropriate for two-value logic: probability the hypothesis is true and probability the hypothesis is false. However, the climate problem requires evidence based logic with at least three values: 1) evidence for the hypothesis, 2) total ignorance (or uncommitted belief); and 3) evidence against the hypothesis. 
 
She concludes with the statements: “In the 5 years since I started stalking the uncertainty monster, we’ve seen a lot of intellectual progress on how to frame and approach this issue. It is becoming easier for scientists to do and publish research that challenges the consensus. 
 
That’s the good news. “The bad news is that the interface between climate science and policy remains badly broken. Many politicians seem to have become uncertainty deniers, with President Obama leading the pack. The UNFCCC/IPCC is on a collision course with reality; it will be interesting to see how the Paris meeting goes next Dec, and how the IPCC AR6 will proceed. But science seems less and less relevant to what is going on in the policy arena. 
 
Which is fine; please get out of our way and let us do our science so that we can try to figure all this out by exploring the knowledge frontiers, rather than pledging allegiance to the consensus.” In SEPP’s view, Curry’s assessments apply to the US National Assessment by the US Global Change Research Program as well as to the IPCC. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy. 
 
Read more at www.sepp.org

Comments (3)

  • Avatar

    solvingtornadoes

    |

    Well, yes, scientifically Curry is illiterate, as are many in the atmospheric sciences–including meteorology. The trick is to not let that become an excuse for your own illiteracy. If somebody asks you a substantive question you’d better damn well answer it.

    Are you yourself aware of any direct evidence that moist air is lighter than dry air (all other factors being the same)? If you can’t address this question directly and honestly then you are in no position to criticize Curry.

    Are you?

    Pretentiousness in science is not limited to climatology.

    Did you hear the one about the guy that goes to buy a suit?
    http://wp.me/p4JijN-3j

  • Avatar

    Joseph A Olson

    |

    Judy Curry is the person that I created the term “Luke Warmist” to define in my rebuttal to her absurd FAKE debate with the Hockey Sticker Doc, Big Warmist Mikey Mann. In the April 2010 issue of Disney screed, Discovery these two impostors had a fake debate and i replied with “Non Science Nonsense” posted at CanadaFreePress.com and sent her a copy. I followed with additional emails, and finally a tele call to explain Thermodynamics. I convinced her to audit an engineering Thermo class that summer, she attended one class and dropped out.

    My review of this FAKE debate is in “Lukewarm Lemmings and the Lysenko Larceny” at FauxScienceSlayer site. I finally met Ms Curry at the Houston, Sept 2014 Heritage/TPPF Crossroad Conference where she stated, “with more funding we will be able to determine the exact amour of CO2 forcing”. Thermodynamics has proven this phantom forcing to be ZERO and after squandering +$160 billion in Carbon Endangerment Findings, we do not need to waste any more.

    Clima-clownology is an INTENTIONAL FRAUD, proven to not be able to police itself, funded for an elitist directed agenda and never subject to wider science community oversight. This toxic branch of science is modern phrenology and alchemy and MUST be disbanded.

  • Avatar

    Greg House

    |

    I thought Curry belonged to the climate liars group. Objections, anyone?

    There is no uncertainty about “climate change”, the thing is apparently a hoax. It’s very foundation “greenhouse effect” is physically impossible, their “global temperature” is sheer nonsense. They usually refuse to discuss it, so they apparently know.

Comments are closed