Central England Temperature (CET) Trends February 2017
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html
According to the Met Office, last month much milder than average, although it only ranked 34th warmest since 1772. The warmest February was actually way back in 1779.
Looking at the figures for England as a whole, average temperatures for February do seem to have been on the rise since the 1980s.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/actualmonthly
However, averages can be misleading. After all, would you wade across a river that had an average depth of four feet? Does this mean that daily temperatures are generally rising across the board? In other words, are daily temperatures typically higher than they would have been in the past?
After all, this is exactly what we would see if we compared, say, London with Edinburgh. Being further south, London’s climate is naturally much warmer, and most days would tend to be correspondingly warmer. To test this, I have plotted the highest and lowest daily February mean temperatures for each year, using the CET back to 1772.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/index.html
If daily temperatures were gradually rising, it is reasonable to assume that we would see a similar rise in both highest and lowest bands. What is immediately apparent is that this is not the case. Going right back through the record, we can see years with similar temperatures to recent ones.
We can see more clearly if we look at highest and lowest temperatures separately:
With the exception of 2004, there is nothing unusual about any of the daily highs in the last decade or so. But what is clear is that since 1986 there has been a total absence of really cold weather. Remember that these are daily highs, so, for instance, in February 1986 the daily mean never got above 2.3C.
We find the same picture with daily lows. Again, while some years in the past had weather just as mild as now, many also had much colder spells.
It is this absence of much colder interludes, maybe only for a few days, that has pushed up the average temperature in the last couple of decades.
This is only one month, of course, but it does back up other analysis I have done in the past, which came to similar conclusions. Hopefully I’ll have a look at the other winter months shortly, to see if the trends are the same.
Read more at notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com
Trackback from your site.